多種再分析地面氣溫資料在江西省的適用性
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國家自然科學基金項目(41965008)、江西省重點研發計劃項目(20192BBFL60040)、江西省氣象科技項目(JMTF20180407)共同資助


Applicability Assessment of Surface Air Temperature from JRA55, ERA-Interim, ERA5 and MERRA2 Reanalysis Products over Jiangxi Province
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    摘要:

    為評估不同再分析地面氣溫資料的適用性和模擬精度,采用雙線性內插法將JRA55、ERAInterim、ERA5和MERRA2等再分析地面氣溫資料降尺度至氣象觀測站,評估其對實測氣溫的平均態(平均偏差、均方根誤差、相關性分析)、趨勢態(年際趨勢)和極端態(高溫日數、低溫日數)的再現能力。通過在江西省的對比分析,結果表明:①利用鄰近格點氣溫和高度值計算的逐時氣溫垂直遞減率具有合理的波動范圍以及季節性周期,適用于復雜地形下逐時再分析資料的內插訂正;②訂正后JRA55地面氣溫資料的均方根誤差最小,MERRA2其次,ERAInterim和ERA5最大;③從氣溫年際變化趨勢來看,JRA55、ERAInterim和ERA5增溫速率與實測值較為一致,且JRA55對增溫中心的刻畫更優;④4種再分析資料均能再現高、低溫日數的年際波動,但JRA55在量級上描述最優。綜上,再分析地面氣溫資料的適用性JRA55>ERAInterim>ERA5>MERRA2,JRA55再分析資料能較好地再現氣溫實際觀測資料。

    Abstract:

    In order to evaluate the performance of reanalysis surface temperature over Jiangxi Province, the gridded temperature data of the JRA55, ERAInterim, ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalysis models during 1980-2017 is topographically modified and interpolated to the station level by the bilinear interpolation method, to examine the applicability over observed temperature in terms of meanstate deviations (bias, root mean square error and correlation analysis), annual trend and extreme temperature events (the number of high/low temperature days). The results show that the lapse rate of air temperature calculated in the study has a reasonable range and seasonal cycle, and is suitable for the topographical correction for hourly data interpolation. Based on the topographically modified results, JRA55 has the lowest bias and root mean square error, followed by MERRA2, ERAInterim and ERA5. As for the tendency, JRA55, ERAInterim and ERA5 are consistent with observation in magnitude, while JRA55 has better capacity in capturing the spatial distribution of the warming. In the perspective of extreme temperature events, the four set of reanalysis data can reproduce the annual fluctuations, but only JRA55 shows closest magnitude to the observation. As a conclusion, the applicability is: JRA55>ERAInterim>ERA5>MERRA2.

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李翔翔,黃淑娥,楊軍,秦曉晨.多種再分析地面氣溫資料在江西省的適用性[J].氣象科技,2020,48(6):877~886

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  • 收稿日期:2019-12-18
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-12-28
  • 出版日期: 2020-12-31
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