基于年際增量法的華西秋雨預測模型建立及檢驗
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中國氣象局核心業務發展專項(YBGJXM(2019)0606)、國家自然科學基金項目(41275097)共同資助


Establishment and Test of Huaxi Autumn Rain Forecasting Model Based on Interannual Increment Method
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    摘要:

    利用1962—2018年華西地區301個氣象臺站秋季降水量資料和國家氣候中心整理的130項氣候系統指數,采用年際增量法建立了華西秋雨預測模型。首先通過相關分析挑選了4個與華西秋雨年際增量前3主模態密切相關的影響因子,進而采用多元線性回歸方法進行建模,擬合時段和后報時段分別選為1962—1991年和1992—2018年。華西秋雨年際增量前3主模態累積值的預測模型通過了α=0.01的顯著性水平檢驗,表明該模型具有較高的擬合預測能力。然后用相同的預測因子分別建立華西地區301個氣象站點的華西秋雨年際增量預測模型,大部分模型都通過了顯著性檢驗。用PS評分指標對預測效果進行檢驗,結果顯示后報期年平均PS評分達74.5分。從空間分布來看后報期大部分站點的PS評分都超過60分,其中四川盆地南部、貴州東部和湖南西部等地超過80分。與華西各省和國家氣候中心發布的近6年秋季降水預測PS評分進行比較,發現模型后報結果有顯著優勢??傮w來看,用年際增量法建立的華西秋雨預測模型具有較高的預測技巧和實際應用價值。

    Abstract:

    Based on the autumn precipitation data of 301 meteorological stations in West China from 1962 to 2018 and 130 climatic system indices compiled by the National Climate Center, the autumn rainfall prediction model in West China is established by using the interannual incremental method. Four influencing factors closely related to the first three main modes of the annual increment of Huaxi autumn rainfall are selected through correlation analysis. The multivariate linear regression method is used to establish the model, and the fitting and the hindcast periods are selected as 1962-1991 and 1992-2018, respectively. The mainmode prediction model of interannual increment of Huaxi autumn rainfall has passed the significance test of 〖WTBX〗α〖WTBZ〗=0.01, which shows that the model has a high capability of fitting and forecasting. The interannual incremental forecasting models of Huaxi autumn rainfall for 301 meteorological stations are established with the same forecasting factors, and most of the models have passed the significance test. The results are checked by two indicators: symbol consistency rate and PS score. The results show that the average annual PS score is 74.5 in the hindcast test period. In terms of spatial distribution, the PS scores of all stations in the hindcast test period exceeds 60, and more than 80 points are scored in the southern of Sichuan Basin, Eastern Guizhou and Western Hunan. Compared with the PS scores of autumn precipitation forecast published by the western provinces and the National Climate Center in recent 6 years, it is found that the results of the model have significant advantages. Generally, the Huaxi autumn rain prediction model based on the interannual increment method has high prediction skills and practical application value.

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王春學,鄭然,李棟梁,唐紅玉,馬振峰,茅海祥.基于年際增量法的華西秋雨預測模型建立及檢驗[J].氣象科技,2020,48(6):855~861

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-21
  • 定稿日期:2020-06-22
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-12-28
  • 出版日期: 2020-12-31
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