太平洋年代際振蕩與嚴重影響海南島強臺風事件的關聯性
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國家自然科學基金項目(41765005)、海南省自然科學基金面上項目(417298)和海南省氣象局科研項目(HNQXJS201803、HNQXJS202003)共同資助


Relevance of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Violent Typhoon Events Seriously Affecting Hainan Island in Recent 70 Years
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    摘要:

    利用1949—2018年熱帶氣旋資料、NCEP/NCAR再分析格點資料、太平洋年代際振蕩(PDO)指數資料等分析了嚴重影響海南島的強臺風事件變化特征,并在此基礎上開展了PDO對強臺風事件的影響研究。結果表明:嚴重影響海南島的強臺風事件頻數存在明顯的年際變化特征,具有連續性和群發性,在1960—1990年間存在顯著的8~10年的周期規律;強臺風事件與PDO冷位相期存在較好的對應,更容易發生在冷位相年;PDO冷(暖)位相,菲律賓以東低緯度西太平洋海域海表溫度與強臺風事件頻數呈現顯著的負(正)相關關系;副熱帶高壓強度偏弱(強),位置整體偏東(西)偏北(南),低層輻合帶呈現西北東南走向(東西帶狀分布),輻合區域較為寬廣(窄長),有利于PDO冷(暖)位相年時強臺風事件的發生。PDO通過對副熱帶高壓、低層環流場等氣候因子的調制作用進而影響強臺風的生成和發展。

    Abstract:

    With the typhoon cyclone data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index data from 1949 to 2018, the characteristics of the Violent Typhoon Event Seriously Affecting Hainan Island (VTESAH) are analyzed. Based on this, the impact of PDO on VTESAH is analyzed. The results show that the frequency of VTESAH has obvious interannual variation characteristics, with continuity and clustering. During 1960-1990, the frequency of VTESAH had a significant 8to10 year cycle, of which the 8year cycle was the most significant. There is a good correspondence between VTESAHs and cold phases of PDO, and VTESAHs are more likely to occur in cold phase years. When the PDO phase is cold (warm), there is a significant negative (positive) correlation between the frequency of VTESAHs and the sea surface temperature in the western Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines at low latitudes. When the subtropical high is weaker (stronger) and its position is farther eastward (westward) and northward (southward), the lower convergence zone shows a northwestsoutheast trend (eastwest beltshaped), and the convergence area is wider and larger (narrower and longer), it is good for the occurrence of VTESAHs in the cold (warm) phase years of PDO. The generation and development of VTESAHs can be influenced by PDO through the modulation of climate factors such as subtropical high and lowlevel circulation.

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朱晶晶,趙小平,吳勝安,楊靜.太平洋年代際振蕩與嚴重影響海南島強臺風事件的關聯性[J].氣象科技,2020,48(6):846~854

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-22
  • 定稿日期:2020-06-23
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-12-28
  • 出版日期: 2020-12-31
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