基于SPEI指數的河北省南部夏玉米生長季干旱特征分析
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“十三五”國家重點研發計劃項目“黃淮海北部小麥〖CD*2〗玉米周年控水節肥一體化均衡豐產增效關鍵技術研究與模式構建”(2017YFD0300900)、邢臺市科技計劃項目“邢臺夏玉米需水量時空分布特征及氣象影響因子研究”(2019ZC077)資助


SPEIBased Characteristic Analysis of Summer Corn Drought in Growing Season in Southern Hebei Province
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    摘要:

    利用河北省南部8個氣象站點1962—2018年的逐月氣溫、降水量數據,采用標準化降水蒸散指數(SPEI),通過小波分析、MannKendall檢驗等方法,分析了河北省南部夏玉米生長季(6—9月)干旱變化特征以期為干旱災害的監測、預報預警及防御提供理論依據。結果表明:夏玉米苗期干旱發生頻率為31.5%,1966年后苗期氣候呈濕潤化趨勢,在1968和2009年附近可能發生了氣候濕潤化的突變,整個分析期(1962—2018年)干濕變化包含13~18 a 、5~8 a 周期振蕩;夏玉米穗期干旱發生頻率為40.3%,2006年后穗期氣候呈持續干旱化趨勢,在1980和1997年附近可能發生了氣候干旱化的突變,整個分析期干濕變化包含15~22 a 、6~10 a 周期振蕩;夏玉米花粒期干旱發生頻率為29.8%,1989年后花粒期氣候呈持續干旱化趨勢,可能在1992和2002年附近發生了氣候干旱化的突變;夏玉米生長季干旱發生頻率約為30%,生長季氣候總體呈干旱化趨勢,特別是1997年后持續干旱化,可能在1996年附近發生了氣候干旱化的突變。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observation data of 8 meteorological stations in the southern Hebei Province from 1962 to 2018, the characteristics and trends of climate change in summer maize growing season (June to September) are analyzed by the regression analysis, wavelet analysis and MannKendall test. The frequency of drought in the seedling stage of summer maize was 31.5%. After 1966, the climate in the seedling stage showed a humidification trend. A sudden change in climate humidification occurred around 1968 and 2009. The drywet changes during the entire analysis period (1962 to 2018) contained the periodic oscillations of 13 to 18 years and 5 to 8 years. The frequency of drought at the ear stage of summer corn was 40.3%, and the climate at the ear stage after 2006 showed a continuous aridity trend. A sudden change in climate aridification occurred around 1980 and 1997. The drywet changes in the entire analysis period contained the periodic oscillations of 15 to 22 years and 6 to 10 years. The frequency of drought during the flower and grain period of summer maize was 29.8%. After 1989, the climate during the flower and grain period showed a continuous aridification trend. It is possible that a sudden change of climate aridity occurred in 1992 and 2002. The frequency of drought in the summer corn growing season is about 30%. The climate in the growing season showed a trend of aridification, especially after 1997, and there experienced abrupt climate aridification around 1996. The above results are expected to provide a theoretical basis for drought disaster monitoring, prediction, early warning and prevention.

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趙玉兵,孫東磊,賈秋蘭,楊麗娜,甄文超.基于SPEI指數的河北省南部夏玉米生長季干旱特征分析[J].氣象科技,2020,48(5):766~773

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-14
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-10-26
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