基于降雨強度與歷時的紅層區滑坡降雨閾值分析——以普洱為例
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云南省普洱市氣象局李崇銀院士工作站(2018IC150)和貴州省科技廳項目[黔科合支撐2017(2593)]共同資助


Rainfall Threshold Analysis of Landslides in Red Bed Areas Based on Rainfall Intensity and Duration: Pu’er as an Example
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    摘要:

    普洱位于云南西南部,境內巖漿巖分布廣泛。地質構造不僅復雜,也是典型的紅層易滑區。本文利用普洱市2009—2014年降水量和滑坡資料,采用Caine閾值曲線和聚類分析方法,分析了紅層區降雨型滑坡特征及確定降雨型滑坡的降雨閾值曲線,以期為紅層區降雨型滑坡的預報預警提供理論依據。通過統計分析得出:①研究區域滑坡災害主要集中在哀牢山群、無量山群及瀾滄群,并屬相應斷裂帶上。② 7—9月滑坡災害發生最為頻繁,占發生總量的77.1%。③滑坡災害可分為短歷時強降水型,中等歷時弱降水型和長歷時弱降水型、非降雨型滑坡,通過統計分析得出全市有40個滑坡事件與降雨無明顯相關關系(0.7%)。④使用改進后的Caine模型研究了區域滑坡降雨閾值曲線,得到4類曲線:I=85D-0.874、I=45D-0.811、I=27D-0.782、I=12D-0.774。其最低閾值高于Guzzetti全球閾值,但較Caine全球閾值略低,最高閾值較福建臺風型降雨滑坡閾值高。

    Abstract:

    Pu’er is located in the southwest of Yunnan Province. Magma rocks are widely distributed. The geological structure of this area is not only complex, but also a typical red bed landslideprone area. The characteristics and the rainfall threshold curve of raininduced landslide disasters can be obtained by using the Caine threshold curve, rainfall intensity and duration, clustering analysis and other methods, by means of the data of rainfall and landslids from 2009 to 2014 over Pu’er, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the prediction and warning of rainfallinduced landslides in the red bed areas. The statistical analysis indicates: (1) The landslide hazards in the study area mainly focus on the Ailaoshan Mountain group, Wuliang Mountain group and Lancang Mountain group, and belong to the corresponding fault zones. (2) Landslide hazards account for 77.1% of the total, occurred most frequently from July to September. (3) Landslide hazards can be divided into the shortterm heavy rainfall type, midterm weak rainfall type and longterm weak rainfall type. The statistical analysis shows that there are 40 landslides without significant correlation with rainfall (0.7%). (4) Using the improved Caine model, it can be obtained that the rainfall threshold curves of landslides can be divided into four categories in the study area: I=85D-0.874, I=45D-0.811, I=27D-0.782, and I=12D-0.774. The minimum threshold is higher than the global threshold of Guzzetti, but lower than that of Caine, and the maximum threshold is higher than the threshold of landslides induced by typhoon rainfall in Fujian.

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王秀英,王朝明,廖留峰,陳卓,田奇靈,陳瑩.基于降雨強度與歷時的紅層區滑坡降雨閾值分析——以普洱為例[J].氣象科技,2020,48(5):758~765

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-21
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-10-26
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