WRF模式不同地形平滑方案對降水預報的影響
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重慶市氣象局數值模式創新團隊項目(ZHCXTD202001)、重慶市技術創新與應用發展專項(cstc2019jscxtjsb0008)和氣象預報業務關鍵技術發展專項(YBGJXM(2018)1A08)共同資助


Influence of Different Terrain Smoothing Schemes in WRF Model on Precipitation Forecast
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    摘要:

    基于重慶市氣象局中尺度數值預報業務系統,開展不同地形平滑方案對模式降水預報的影響研究,詳細對比WRF模式中不使用地形平滑方案以及使用sds和121兩種平滑方案生成的靜態地形高度場的差異,開展不同地形平滑方案批量平行試驗并選取典型強降水個例進行對比分析,結果表明:不同地形平滑方案生成的靜態地形高度場之間有明顯的差異,特別是在地形較為陡峭的高原和山脈等地區,最大絕對偏差可達462.56 m; sds和121兩種地形平滑方案主要平滑掉了模式地形中較小尺度的地形特征,且總體而言121方案的平滑效果比sds方案明顯。連續一個月批量平行試驗降水預報檢驗結果表明,進行模式地形平滑對大雨及以上量級降水預報有正面影響,且使用121平滑方案的預報結果優于使用sds平滑方案的預報結果;降水個例對比分析結果表明:采用不同的地形平滑方案會造成垂直速度和水汽通量散度預報的明顯差異,這樣的明顯差異會進而影響強降水預報的落區和強度。

    Abstract:

    Based on the mesoscale numerical forecast system that is operationally implemented in the Chongqing Meteorological Service, the influence of different terrain smoothing schemes in the WRF model on precipitation forecast is studied. The differences between the static terrain height fields generated without smoothing and with two smoothing schemes (sds and 121) in the WRF model are studied and compared in detail. Based on this, one month consistent experiments using different terrain smoothing schemes were carried out, and a typical heavy precipitation case was selected for further comparative analysis. The results show that there are obvious difference between the static terrain height fields generated by different terrain smoothing schemes, especially for the steep plateau regions or mountain regions while the maximum mean absolute error can be more than 462.56 m; the two terrain smoothing schemes (sds and 121) mainly smooth out the topographic features of small scale in the mode terrain, and in general, the smoothing degree of the 121 scheme is greater than that of the sds scheme. The verification results of the one month consistent experiments show that the model terrain smoothing process has a positive impact on the forecasts of heavy or above rainfall, and the prediction results using the 121 smoothing scheme are better than those using the sds smoothing scheme. The comparative analysis results of a typical precipitation case show that different terrain smoothing schemes will cause significant differences in the prediction of vertical velocity and water vapor flux divergence, and such significant differences will further affect the fall area and intensity of heavy precipitation prediction.

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陳良呂,夏宇,莊瀟然. WRF模式不同地形平滑方案對降水預報的影響[J].氣象科技,2020,48(5):664~674

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-15
  • 定稿日期:2020-04-21
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-10-26
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