基于1 km網格的北京暴雨洪澇災害風險區劃
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北京市自然基金(8192020)、北京市發展和改革委員會調研課題“氣候變化下北京地區氣象災害風險應對研究”、中國氣象局氣候變化專項“華北區域氣候變化評估報告”資助


Risk Zoning of Beijing Rainstorm Disasters Based on 1-km Resolution Grids
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    摘要:

    目前許多城市暴雨洪澇災害綜合風險區劃對暴雨在復雜地形下可能引發的山洪與地質災害造成的高風險以及對城市交通安全風險估計不足,同時常規的氣象觀測資料已難以描述暴雨致災危險性精細化分布。本文基于自然災害風險評估理論,利用遴選的293個北京氣象自動站2006—2017年逐時降水觀測資料、北京2015年1〖DK〗∶25萬基礎地理信息、2016年Landsat8晴空遙感影像、災情資料以及網格化的社會經濟資料,在承災體暴露度基礎上充分考慮了承災體對暴雨引發的城市積澇、山洪與地質災害災損敏感性差異,從暴雨致災危險性、孕災環境敏感性、承災體易損性3個方面開展了北京地區暴雨災害1 km分辨率的精細網格化風險評估與區劃,并結合實際案例進行了分析。結果顯示:①基于高密度降水觀測資料提取的網格化短歷時暴雨頻次和暴雨量能較為精細地評估致災危險性;基于遙感與GIS提取的不透水蓋度、地形起伏度與河網密度可有效評估暴雨洪澇孕災環境敏感性;基于1 km格網化的GDP、人口密度和路網密度以及災損敏感系數可有效評估暴雨引發的積澇、山洪與地質災害對人員、財產和公路交通的易損性;②與已有成果比較,本次北京暴雨洪澇風險區劃不但凸顯了暴雨對城市的積澇風險,也凸顯了暴雨引發的山洪與地質災害風險,同時突出了暴雨對城市交通設施安全的影響;③風險區劃結果基本反映了北京市暴雨災害的潛在風險,北京暴雨洪澇災害防御的重點區域應放在風險較高的三個區域。

    Abstract:

    The existing comprehensive risk assessments of storms and floods in many cities in China often underestimate the risks caused by torrential rains and geological disasters induced by heavy rains in complex terrain area and insufficient estimates of urban traffic safety risks. At the same time, due to the influence of terrain and urban heat islands, the geographical spatial characteristics of heavy rains are obvious. It is difficult to describe the spatial distribution of storm hazard risks by the conventional meteorological observation data. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk assessment, this paper uses the yeartoyear precipitation observation data of 293 meteorological automatic stations in Beijing from 2006 to 2017, the 1〖DK〗∶25×104 basic geographic information in 2015, the Landsat8 clearsky remote sensing images in 2016, disaster data, as well as other socioeconomic aids. The shortduration rainstorm frequency and rainstorm process rainfall indicators are used to assess the risk of rainstorm disasters. Based on the topography and river network factors, the impervious coverage index is introduced to reflect the environmental sensitivity of the disasterstricken environment. Based on the exposure of the hazardbearing body, the study fully considers the sensitivity difference of the disasterstricken body to the urban floods, mountain torrents and geological disasters caused by heavy rainfall. From the respects of the risk of rainstorm disasters, the sensitivity of the environment to the disasters, and the vulnerability of the disaster victims, a fine comprehensive risk zoning with a resolution of 1 km is carried out for the heavy rain disasters in Beijing, and the actual case was analyzed. The results show that: (1) The gridded shortduration rainstorm frequency and the heavy rain amount based on the highdensity precipitation observation data can be used to evaluate the hazard risk more accurately; the impervious cover, terrain relief and river network density based on remote sensing and GIS extraction can be used to effectively assess the environmental sensitivity of storm floods and floods; based on 1km grid GDP, population density, road network density and damage sensitivity coefficient can be used to effectively assess the vulnerability of the rainstorminduced waterlogging, mountain torrents and geological disasters on people, property and road traffic. (2) Compared with the existing results, the Beijing torrential rain flood risk zoning highlights the waterlogging of heavy rains on the city, the risk of flash floods and geological disasters caused by heavy rains, and the impact of heavy rains on the safety of urban transport facilities. (3) The results of risk zoning basically reflect the potential risks of heavy rain disasters in Beijing. The key areas of storm flooding disaster prevention in Beijing should be placed in three areas with high risk.

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軒春怡,劉勇洪,楊曉燕,舒文軍,吳春艷,胡永鋒,杜吳鵬.基于1 km網格的北京暴雨洪澇災害風險區劃[J].氣象科技,2020,48(4):579~589

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-06
  • 定稿日期:2019-12-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-08-21
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