浙江省高速公路路面溫度預報模型性能檢驗及應用
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華東區域氣象科技協同創新基金合作項目(QYHZ201805)和浙江省氣象局科技計劃項目(2019ZD11)共同資助


A Numerical Forecasting System for Road Surface Temperature on Expressway in Zhejiang Province and its Performance Evaluation
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    摘要:

    基于地表能量守恒方程和陸面模式土壤溫度計算模塊,建立高速公路路面溫度預報物理模型。利用2014年6月1日至2015年5月31日8個常規氣象觀測站和6個交通自動氣象監測站逐小時觀測資料對模型預報產品進行評估檢驗,結果表明:預報效果隨提前量的減小而提高,常規站(交通站)提前1 h和6 h預報的平均絕對誤差分別為1.64 ℃(1.82 ℃)和3.27 ℃和(3.69 ℃)。由模型對輸入氣象要素的敏感性分析得出:模型對2 m氣溫最敏感,其次是相對濕度、總云量,且敏感性隨著預報提前量的增加而增強。結合浙江省快速更新同化系統數值預報產品,建立浙江省高速公路路面溫度預報系統,為全省提供逐12 h更新、12 h預報時效的逐小時高速公路路面溫度精細化預報,系統提前1 h和11 h預報常規站(交通站)的平均絕對誤差分別為2.81 ℃(3.23 ℃)和2.50 ℃和(2.93 ℃),系統對極端高(低)溫預報具有較高的預報技巧。

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    Based on the surface energy balance method and the soil temperature calculation module of the Community Land Model (CLM), a numerical forecast model for road surface temperature on expressway is developed. The hourly observation data of 8 conventional meteorological stations and 6 traffic automatic weather monitoring stations from 1 June 2014 to 31 May 2015 are used to evaluate and test the model forecast products. The results show that the prediction skill increases with the decrease of forecast lead time. When the forecast lead time is 1 and 6 hours, the average absolute errors of the conventional stations (traffic stations) are 1.64 ℃ (1.82 ℃) and 3.27 ℃ (3.69 ℃), respectively. The sensitivity analysis of the model to the meteorological elements indicates that the model is most sensitive to 2m temperature, followed by relative humidity and total cloud amount, and the sensitivity increases with the increase of forecast lead time. Combined with the forecasting products of the Zhejiang WRFADAS Rapid Refresh System, the Zhejiang Expressway Surface Temperature Forecasting System is established to provide the refined forecasting products of hourly highway surface temperature in the future 12 hours with an update rate of 12 hours for the whole province. The evaluation results show that the average absolute errors of conventional stations (traffic stations) are 2.81 ℃ (3.23 ℃) and 2.50 ℃ (2.93 ℃), respectively, when the forecast lead time are 1 and 11 hours. The system has high forecasting skills for extreme high (low) temperature forecasting.

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邱金晶,陳鋒,張玨,倪思聰.浙江省高速公路路面溫度預報模型性能檢驗及應用[J].氣象科技,2020,48(4):518~528

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  • 收稿日期:2019-08-22
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-08-21
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