貴州西部紅心獼猴桃潰瘍病始發期氣象預測預警
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貴州省市科技合作項目(5202020150102)、中國科協創新驅動助力工程(2017ZLGC004)、貴州省科技計劃項目(黔科合NY字[2012]3020號)資助


Meteorological Forecasting and Warning of Beginning Date for Red Cartridge Kiwifruit Canker Disease in Western Guizhou Province
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    摘要:

    紅心獼猴桃是貴州西部主要特色作物,隨著其種植面積的擴大,紅心獼猴桃潰瘍病危害程度呈上升趨勢,已成為制約紅心獼猴桃特色產業發展的主要因素之一。根據貴州西部紅心獼猴桃主要種植區連續6 a的觀測資料,采用相關分析方法,研究了氣象因子與紅心獼猴桃潰瘍病發生的關系,選取相關性較好的氣象因子作為紅心獼猴桃潰瘍病發生的預報因子,并結合紅心獼猴桃潰瘍病監測資料,研究建立了紅心獼猴桃潰瘍病氣象預報模型。研究得出:當12月中旬至次年1月上旬連續5 d及以上日平均溫度≤2 ℃、日最低溫度≤-2 ℃、日平均相對濕度≥75%時,預測3月上旬為潰瘍病始發,預測準確率為50%;當1月中旬至下旬連續5 d及以上日平均溫度≤2 ℃、日最低溫度≤-2 ℃、日平均相對濕度≥75%時,預測3月中旬為潰瘍病始發,預測準確率為100%;當2月上旬至中旬連續5 d及以上日平均溫度≤2 ℃、日最低溫度≤-2 ℃、日平均相對濕度≥75%時,預測3月下旬為潰瘍病始發,預測準確率為100%。

    Abstract:

    Red cartridge kiwifruit canker disease sees an uptrend in recent years in the western Guizhou as the production scale of red cartridge kiwifruits is extended quickly, and this disease has become one of the main limited factors in the production of red cartridge kiwifruits in this area. Based on the 6year observation data of the main planting areas of red cartridge kiwifruits in the western Guizhou Province, the correlation analysis method is used to study the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of cartridge kiwifruit canker disease. The meteorological factors with better correlation are selected as the prediction factors of red cartridge kiwifruit canker disease. The meteorological prediction model of red cartridge kiwifruit canker disease is established based on the monitoring data of red cartridge kiwifruit canker disease. It is concluded: When the daily average temperature of 5 days or more from midDecember to early January of next year is less than 2 ℃, the daily minimum temperature was less than -2 ℃ and the daily average relative humidity is more than 75%, the canker disease will begin in the early March, with a prediction accuracy of 50%. When the average daily temperature of 5 days or more from midJanuary to late January is less than 2 ℃, the lowest daily temperature is less than -2 ℃ and the average daily relative humidity is more than 75%,the canker disease will begin in the midMarch, with a prediction accuracy of 100%. When the average daily temperature of 5 days or more from early to midFebruary is less than 2 ℃, the lowest daily temperature is less than -2 ℃ and the average daily relative humidity is more than 75%, the canker disease will beginning in late March, with an accuracy of 100%.

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池再香,劉莉娟,陳蘊,白慧,蔣仕華,姚靜.貴州西部紅心獼猴桃潰瘍病始發期氣象預測預警[J].氣象科技,2020,48(3):443~450

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-17
  • 定稿日期:2019-08-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-06-18
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