基于雨量分級回歸分析的站點日降水量預報訂正
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

國家重點研發計劃重點專項(2017YFC1502002)、江蘇省研究生科研與實踐創新計劃項目(KYCX17_0875)、中國民用航空華東地區管理局委托項目(2019378)、鹽城市氣象局科技項目(YQK2017002)資助


Station Forecast Calibration of Daily Precipitation Using Categorized Rainfall Regression
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    利用ECMWF 24 h累計降水量預報資料,以全國范圍內2403個國家地面氣象觀測站24 h累計降水量作為觀測資料,對站點預報結果進行雨量分級回歸訂正,并與直接雙線性插值的預報結果進行對比,利用頻率匹配法進一步對不同量級的降水預報結果進行二次訂正。結果表明,雨量分級回歸相比雙線性插值,可以減小預報誤差,提高預報結果與觀測值之間的相關系數以及降水預報的ETS評分,使站點預報值更接近實況。頻率匹配法能改善各降水量級的預報效果,降水面積偏差減小,小雨空報率和大雨漏報率減小。對于不同起報時間、不同降水量級和不同預報時效,雨量分級回歸和頻率匹配法的改進程度各不相同。雨量分級回歸對于20:00起報的降水預報改進幅度大于08:00,對0.1 mm和50 mm量級的降水預報改進較為有限,對5~15 mm量級的降水預報改進明顯,且隨預報時效的延長,對降水預報的改進幅度呈增大趨勢。此外,頻率匹配法對于起報時次效果較差的降水預報改進幅度較大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the precipitation forecast dataset from the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the daily accumulated precipitation of 2403 national surface meteorological observation stations across China, the calibration on daily precipitation by means of the categorized rainfall regression and the further calibration by means of the frequencymatching method are conducted. The results show that compared with the bilinear method, the categorized rainfall regression is more effective in decreasing the forecast biases, and improves the correlation coefficient with the observed data and the equitable threat score. The forecasts of different thresholds become more accurate after applying the frequencymatching method, with the smaller area deviation. The false alarm rate of light rain and the missing rate of heavy rain are also both reduced. Improvements of the forecasts by the categorized rainfall regression and the frequencymatching method differ in initialized times, rainfall thresholds and lead times. After the calibration of the categorized rainfall regression, the forecast initialized at 20:00 is improved with a larger magnitude than that at 08:00. The improvement of the forecast is relatively limited for rainfall thresholds of 01 mm and 50 mm, but significant for thresholds of 5 mm, 10 mm and 15 mm. Additionally, the amplitude of the improvement increases slightly over the lead time. The improvement induced by the frequencymatching method is greater for precipitation forecasts initialized at specific times that show worse performances.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

王姝蘇,周紅梅,朱壽鵬.基于雨量分級回歸分析的站點日降水量預報訂正[J].氣象科技,2020,48(3):421~427

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-10
  • 定稿日期:2020-01-09
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2020-06-18
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>