杭州市典型雨轉雪天氣成因及預報模型
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“杭州市0~15天中短期精細化天氣預報產品開發”項目(ZJZBC189004)、杭州市氣象局科技計劃項目(QX201816)資助


Causes and Forecast Model of Typical Rain-to-Snow Weather in Hangzhou
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    摘要:

    利用2008—2018年的NCEP(1°×1°)再分析資料、常規氣象觀測資料和降雪加密觀測資料,選出杭州地區10次典型的雨轉雪天氣過程,從大尺度環流背景和動力、水汽以及熱力因子等物理量場結構方面展開研究,最終得出杭州冬季典型雨轉雪天氣的預報模型:①大尺度環流配置需滿足能為雨轉雪天氣的形成提供有利的水汽、動力抬升以及中低層上暖下冷的逆溫或等溫層結條件;②水汽和動力因子等物理量須滿足產生純雪的特定條件;③杭州溫度層結須為T2m≤1.5 ℃、T925≤-4.0 ℃、T850≤0 ℃、T700≤-1.0 ℃和T500≤-10.0 ℃。此外,進一步補充了杭州可能產生大雪甚至暴雪量級降雪的特定條件。最終選取2019年初的2次典型降水過程進行預報回報檢驗。

    Abstract:

    Based on the NCEP (National Center of Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data with a resolution of 1°×1°, conventional meteorological data and intensive snowfall observations from 2008 to 2018, ten typical weather processes of rainsnow conversion in Hangzhou are selected in the aspects of largescale circulation background and physical quantities such as dynamic, water vapor and thermal factors. Ultimately, the typical winter forecast hints of rainsnow conversion in Hangzhou are concluded as follows: (1) The largescale circulation configuration provides favorable conditions including water vapor, dynamic lifting and inversion or isothermal stratification in the middle and lower troposphere for the formation of rain to snow. 〖JP2〗(2) The physical quantities such as water vapor 〖JP3〗and dynamic factors should satisfy specific conditions for snow. (3) The temperature stratification in Hangzhou should be 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗2m≤1.5 ℃,〖JP〗 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗925≤4.0 ℃, 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗850≤0 ℃, 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗700≤-1.0 ℃ and 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗500≤-10.0 ℃. In addition, the possible conditions for heavy snow or even blizzards in Hangzhou are further discussed. Moreover, two typical precipitation processes at the beginning of 2019 are selected for forecast inspection.

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李進,陳勇明,毛則劍.杭州市典型雨轉雪天氣成因及預報模型[J].氣象科技,2020,48(3):396~405

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  • 收稿日期:2019-06-18
  • 定稿日期:2019-09-04
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-06-18
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