基于核安全導則推薦方法的京津冀龍卷風災害評估
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河北省科技計劃項目(17275405D)、河北省氣象局科研開發項目(18KY03)資助


Assessment of Tornado Disasters in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Recommended Method by Nuclear Safety Guidelines
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    摘要:

    本文根據美國《建筑和其它結構最小設計荷載》中t秒平均最大風速與1 h平均最大風速的比值公式,推導出EF級別和F級別風速測量標準間的轉換方法,將京津冀1956—2016年122個龍卷風個例由EF等級轉化為F等級,再按照《核電廠廠址選擇的極端氣象事件》HAD101/10中推薦的龍卷風風險評估方法,對京津冀龍卷風風險度進行了定量評價,結果表明:京津冀122個龍卷風個例的風程1/4 mile平均最大風速均比3 s平均最大風速低,平均偏低2.1 m〖DK〗·s-1,風速越大,兩者差距越?。?22個龍卷風個例分布在F0到F3共4個等級中, F0等級 31個,F1等級78個,F2等級12個,F3等級1個;京津冀龍卷風發生次數最多依次為天津、唐山和張家口市,分別為21、21和14次,強龍卷發生最多的是廊坊市(3個),衡水、承德、保定、北京4個市沒有發生過強龍卷;京津冀發生超越EF1、EF2、EF3、EF4等級龍卷風重現期分別為5.8、10.1、20.2、49.5 a,發生超越F1、F2、F3、F4等級龍卷風重現期分別為4.9、13.8、38.5、130.7 a;京津冀一年中單位面上(1 km2)10-7概率水平對應的龍卷風設計基準風速為73.4 m〖DK〗·s-1。

    Abstract:

    Based on the formula of the ratio of the average maximum wind speed in 〖WTBX〗t〖WTBZ〗 seconds to the average maximum wind speed in one hour in the Minimum Design Load for Buildings and Other Structures of the United States, this paper deduces the conversion method between the wind speed measurement standards of EF level and F level, and converts 22 tornado cases in the BeijingTianjinHebei region from 1956 to 2016 from EF level to F level, and then according to the related guidelines for nuclear power plants and the tornado risk assessment method recommended in the Extreme Meteorological Events for Site Selection (HAD101/10), the risk degree of tornado in BeijingTianjinHebei region is quantitatively evaluated. The main conclusions are as follows: for 1/4 mile wind run, the average maximum wind speed of 122 tornado cases in BeijingTianjinHebei is lower than 3second average maximum wind speed, 2.1 m s1 lower than the average, and the higher the wind speed is, the smaller the gap is; 122 tornado cases are distributed in four grades from F0 to F3, including 31 in F0, 78 in F1, 12 in F2 and 1 in F3; in the BeijingTianjinHebei region, tornadoes occur most frequently are in Tianjin, Tangshan and Zhangjiakou, 21, 21 and 14 times, respectively, and the most severe tornadoes occur in Langfang (3); there were no strong tornadoes in Hengshui, Chengde, Baoding and Beijing; the recurrence periods of tornadoes exceeding EF1, EF2, EF3 and EF4 levels in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are 5.8, 10.1, 20.2 and 49.5 years respectively, and those exceeding F1, F2, F3 and F4 levels are 4.9, 13.8, 38.5 and 130.7 years, respectively; the recurrence periods of tornadoes exceeding F1, F2, F3 and F4 levels are 4.9, 13.8, 38.5 and 130.7 years; in the BeijingTianjinHebei region, the tornado design reference wind speed on the unit surface (1 km2) corresponding to the 107 probability level is 73.4 m s-1。

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杜康云,顧光芹,楊銘,許啟慧,劉金平,白璐瑤,石先躍.基于核安全導則推薦方法的京津冀龍卷風災害評估[J].氣象科技,2020,48(2):299~306

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-22
  • 定稿日期:2019-08-20
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-04-29
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