非常規氣象要素在紫外線預報中的應用
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Application of Unconventional Meteorological Elements in Ultraviolet Index Prediction
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    摘要:

    利用吉林省業務運行的WRF模式,計算了與紫外線指數相關的氣溫、濕度、云量、風速等常規氣象要素和地表向下的短波輻射通量、地面熱通量、反照率等非常規氣象要素,利用長春市紫外線觀測資料,分析了紫外線輻射與常規和非常規氣象要素的相關性。基于長春市紫外線觀測實況,以常規氣象要素、非常規氣象要素、混合氣象要素為因子,利用相同的統計建模方法,分別建立紫外線預報模型。結果表明:大氣短波輻射等非常規氣象要素與紫外線指數的相關性,明顯高于氣溫、云量、比濕、風速等常規氣象要素;應用非常規氣象要素和混合氣象要素的紫外線預報方程,顯著優于常規氣象要素;基于混合氣象要素的紫外線預報方程,與基于非常規氣象要素的預報方程比較,預報性能差異不大。此外,應用常規氣象要素建立的分季節紫外線預報方程,其預報效果明顯優于全年預報方程。應用非常規氣象要素建立的分季節紫外線預報方程,與全年預報方程相比,預報效果差異不大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the WRF model of Jilin Province, the conventional meteorological elements such as temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed and the unconventional meteorological elements such as downward surface shortwave radiation flux, surface heat flux and albedo are calculated. The correlation between ultraviolet radiation (UV) with conventional and unconventional meteorological factors is analyzed by using the ultraviolet observation data in Changchun. Based on the observation of UV in Changchun, the UV index prediction models are established by using the same statistical modeling method, taking the conventional and unconventional meteorological elements and mixed meteorological elements as factors. The results show that the correlation between atmospheric short wave radiation and UV index is significantly higher than those of conventional meteorological factors such as temperature, cloud cover, specific humidity and wind speed. The UV index prediction equations of unconventional meteorological elements and mixed meteorological elements are superior to that of conventional meteorological elements. The UV index prediction equation based on mixed meteorological elements has little difference from that based on unconventional meteorological elements. In addition, the application of conventional meteorological elements to the establishment of seasonal UV index prediction equations, compared with the annual ultraviolet prediction equations, significantly improved the prediction effect. The application of unconventional meteorological elements to the establishment of seasonal UV index prediction equations, compared with the annual ultraviolet prediction equations, significantly improved the prediction effect.

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謝靜芳,應爽,劉海峰,陳雷.非常規氣象要素在紫外線預報中的應用[J].氣象科技,2020,48(2):248~253

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-28
  • 定稿日期:2019-11-20
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-04-29
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