Abstract:Based on the WRF model of Jilin Province, the conventional meteorological elements such as temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed and the unconventional meteorological elements such as downward surface shortwave radiation flux, surface heat flux and albedo are calculated. The correlation between ultraviolet radiation （UV） with conventional and unconventional meteorological factors is analyzed by using the ultraviolet observation data in Changchun. Based on the observation of UV in Changchun, the UV index prediction models are established by using the same statistical modeling method, taking the conventional and unconventional meteorological elements and mixed meteorological elements as factors. The results show that the correlation between atmospheric short wave radiation and UV index is significantly higher than those of conventional meteorological factors such as temperature, cloud cover, specific humidity and wind speed. The UV index prediction equations of unconventional meteorological elements and mixed meteorological elements are superior to that of conventional meteorological elements. The UV index prediction equation based on mixed meteorological elements has little difference from that based on unconventional meteorological elements. In addition, the application of conventional meteorological elements to the establishment of seasonal UV index prediction equations, compared with the annual ultraviolet prediction equations, significantly improved the prediction effect. The application of unconventional meteorological elements to the establishment of seasonal UV index prediction equations, compared with the annual ultraviolet prediction equations, significantly improved the prediction effect.
