基于降雨分級的泥石流降雨I-D預報模型
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國家重點研發計劃(2017YFC1502504)和國家自然科學基金(41977257) 資助


Study of I-D Relationship for Debris Flows Based on Rainfall Classification
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    摘要:

    降雨閾值是泥石流預警預報和防災減災的重要研究內容。通過野外考察、文獻查詢等手段,收集了汶川地震災區典型區域(都(江堰)汶(川)公路沿線)震后34次泥石流事件和對應的降雨過程,通過統計誘發泥石流的降雨歷時及平均降雨強度,建立了該地區的降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗(雨強〖CD*2〗歷時)關系;針對〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關系在實際預報中的不足,結合中國氣象部門的雨量劃分標準和誘發泥石流的降雨歷時將降雨分為小量級降雨(SI)、中量級降雨(MI)和大量級降雨(LI)3個等級,得出復合型降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關系。結果表明:①都汶地震災區誘發泥石流的降雨歷時為2~53 h,平均降雨強度為0.1~13.8 mm/h,〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關系可表示為〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=5.94 〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.70;②復合型降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗預報模型可進行分級預警,其中約80%泥石流事件超過了橙色等級預警線,〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗關系式為〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=10.0〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.56(1 h≤〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗 <12 h),I=4.8〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.26(〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗≥12 h);③改進后的復合型降雨〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗閾值線斜率更小,預報精度更高,更適合中國西部山區的泥石流預報工作,且在2014—2016年都汶公路沿線的泥石流預報檢驗中取得了較好效果。本研究擬為汶川地震災區泥石流的預警預報提供技術支撐。

    Abstract:

    Identification of rainfall thresholds is crucial for debris flow forecasting and hazards mitigation. The data of 34 earthquake debris flow events and their responding rainfall processes in a typical debris flow prone region (the zone along the DujiangyanWenchuan National Highway) were collected through field investigations, interviews, and literature researches, etc. The 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗〖WTBX〗D 〖WTBZ〗relationship is established by analysis of the rainfall duration and mean rainfall intensity. A new debris flow warning classification is proposed based on the rainfall division method of the meteorological department of China and the rainfall duration of the debris flows. The rainfall events are divided into three levels: smallscale rainfall (SI), mediumlevel rainfall (MI), and largelevel rainfall (LI), and the 〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗 thresholds are improved. The results indicate: (1) The rainfall duration ranged from 2 to 53 hours; the mean rainfall intensity was in the range of 0.1 to 13.8 mm/h; and the 〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗 relationship can be expressed as 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=5.94〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗0.70. (2) The compounding〖WTBX〗 ID〖WTBZ〗 prediction model can be used for hierarchical warning, and about 80% debris flow events exceed the orange warning line, which can be expressed as 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=10.0〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.56 (1 h ≤〖WTBX〗 D〖WTBZ〗 < 12 h) and 〖WTBX〗I〖WTBZ〗=4.8〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗-0.26 (〖WTBX〗D〖WTBZ〗≥12 h). (3) The improved compounding 〖WTBX〗ID〖WTBZ〗 relationship has a smaller slope and higher accuracy, and more suitable for the debris flow forecasting in the mountainous areas of the western China. The results are tested by the debris flows in the period of 2014 to 2016, which shows an acceptable accuracy. This study is intended to improve debris flow forecasting and hazards mitigation for earthquakeprone regions.

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范江琳,郭曉軍,青泉,馬力.基于降雨分級的泥石流降雨I-D預報模型[J].氣象科技,2020,48(2):242~247

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-06
  • 定稿日期:2019-09-24
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-04-29
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