郴州天氣雷達估測降水量誤差分析
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Analysis of Precipitation Estimation Deviation of Synoptic Radar in Chenzhou
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    摘要:

    新一代天氣雷達系統使用ZI關系式反演降水,在估測降雨時不同地域具有不同誤差;在觀測降水時受到水平陣風或短時大風、回波強度、地形、大氣折射等因素影響,可能降低雷達定量估測降水的精度。本文利用湖南郴州雷達基數據不同低仰角反射率因子分別估算出降水量,對比分析了不同仰角雷達反演估測降水量與自動雨量站雨量數據之間的誤差。通過對雷達估測降水的誤差來源分析、估測降水誤差并應用數學統計分析誤差,初步得出:2.4°仰角估測降水與雨量站的觀測數據線性相關系數最高,雷達估測的降水較為真實。而0.5°、1.5°仰角受地型影響估測降水可行性不高。

    Abstract:

    The newgeneration weather radar system uses the 〖WTBX〗ZI〖WTBZ〗 relation to invert the precipitation. Different deviations emerge in different regions. During the observation of precipitation, the accuracy of quantitative estimation of precipitation may be weakened due to the influence of horizontal gusts, shortterm strong winds, echo intensity, topography, atmospheric refraction, and other factors. In this study, the precipitation is estimated by using the reflectance factor at different elevation angles of the radar basic data and the deviations between the estimated precipitation by radar inversion at different elevation angles and the rainfall data of automatic meteorological stations are compared and analyzed. According to the analysis of the deviation sources of estimated precipitation of radar and the precipitation deviation estimates, using mathematical statistics methods, it is concluded: the 2.4° estimates of precipitation own the highest linear correlation coefficient with automatic station observation and the radar estimation of precipitation in this angle is more real, and the 0.5° and 1.5° estimations affected by the topography are not applicable.

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黃安明,冷謙,袁博,周佑云.郴州天氣雷達估測降水量誤差分析[J].氣象科技,2020,48(2):178~184

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-26
  • 定稿日期:2019-08-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-04-29
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