基于閃電距離判定、雷達產品閾值控制的雷電預警算法研究
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福建省科技廳社會發展引導性(重點)項目(2019Y0063)、福建省氣象局開放式氣象科學研究基金項目(2018K05)資助


Lightning Early Warning Algorithm Based on Lightning Distance Judgment and Radar Product Threshold Control
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    摘要:

    從研發專業雷電臨近預警服務產品及提高其時效性的目的出發,以0.01°×0.01°柵格、6 min為一個預警單元,在雷達閾值控制的雷電臨近預警模型的基礎上,對每個預警網格進行前5個時段內所發生閃電與網格的距離計算,按閃電逼近網格的距離和變化趨勢確定預警規則,生成當前時刻往后6 min柵格、重點區域雷電發生情況的臨近預警產品,并對模型的預報成功率進行了定量和定性化的評估,結果表明該模型相比傳統依靠雷達閾值控制進行雷電臨近預警的方法在柵格、區域的預報準確率都有一定的提高,計算速度快,可以較好地被應用到實際特別是專業雷電臨近預警服務中。

    Abstract:

    In order to develop and improve the professional lightning earlywarning/nowcasting service products and their timeliness, this paper calculates the distance for each grid between the lightning occurring in the first 5 periods of early warning and the grids on the basis of 6min and 0.01°×0.01° grids, and on the foundation of the lightning nowcasting and early warning model controlled by the radar thresholds. According to the size and changing trend of lightning approaching grid distance, the early warning rules are determined, and the nowcasting warning products of the occurrence of lightning in the grids and key areas in the next 6 minutes are generated. The prediction success rate of the model is evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively. The results show that compared with the traditional method of relying on radar threshold control for lightning nowcasting and early warning, the prediction accuracy of grating and region is improved, and the calculation speed is faster, which can be applied to the practical and especially operational lightning nowcasting and early warning service.

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張燁方,馮建偉,馮真禎,楊超.基于閃電距離判定、雷達產品閾值控制的雷電預警算法研究[J].氣象科技,2019,47(6):1026~1031

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  • 收稿日期:2018-06-15
  • 定稿日期:2019-06-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-12-16
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