青藏高原冬春積雪特征及其對我國夏季降水的影響
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國家自然科學基金項目(41575091)、中國氣象局氣象干部培訓學院2018年科研項目“中國區域氣候影響因子研究”資助


Characteristics of Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover in Winter and Spring and Their Influences on Summer Rainfall over China
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    摘要:

    本文利用國家氣象中心提供的逐日地面積雪深度和積雪日數數據,以及NOAA的大氣環流再分析資料,通過合成分析等方法,對1961—2013年青藏高原冬春季積雪高原整體、高原東部、高原西部進行了年際和年代際趨勢分析,結果表明,青藏高原整體冬、春季積雪的變化趨勢一致,雪深呈現“少雪—多雪—少雪—多雪”的變化趨勢,積雪日數呈現“少雪—多雪—少雪”的變化趨勢。高原東(西)部積雪在20世紀60—70年代均明顯增加,20世紀80—90年代均減少,20世紀90年代末東部春季和冬季積雪減少更為顯著,而西部地區除了春季積雪日數變化不大,春、冬季積雪雪深和冬季積雪日數均明顯增加。其次,對青藏高原東、西部地區多(少)雪年的劃分,發現高原東部和西部地區積雪異常年對應的大氣環流形勢也存在差異。最后,進一步分析了青藏高原不同區域積雪異常年環流形勢變化特征及其對我國夏季降水的影響,發現高原東(西)部積雪異常年時我國夏季降水分布存在顯著差異,因此,在將高原積雪作為氣候預測因子的時候,應當考慮東部和西部積雪異常不同所產生影響的差異。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, based on the data of daily snow depth (SD) and the number of days with snow cover (NDSC) from the National Meteorological Information Center and the atmospheric circulation data from NOAA reanalysis, by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition, composite analysis, and other statistical methods, we examine the interannual and interdecadal variations of winter and spring snows in terms of the number of days with snow cover (NDSC) and snow depth (SD) in the entire Tibetan Plateau, the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), and the western Tibetan Plateau (WTP), respectively, and found that in the past 53 years (1961 to 2013), the temporal trends of winter and spring snows averaged over the entire Tibetan Plateau are general similar. The interdecadal variations of SD exhibit the feature of “lessrichlessrich” than normal,and those of NDSC shows the feature of “lessrichless” than normal. For the temporal trends of snow cover in two regions (ETP and WTP), snows increased significantly in the the 1960s and 1970s and reduced in the 1980s and 1990s for both regions. However, the trends were obviously different since the late 1990s, when the snow cover reduced significantly in the ETP whereas it significantly increased in the WTP except for the spring NDSC that showed no apparent trends. Then we identify the typical years with anomalous snow cover in the ETP and WTP, respectively, and investigate the features of snow cover anomalies and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. Finally we investigate the impacts of snow cover anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau on the summer rainfall over China. The results show that significant difference exists in the temporal variations of snow cover for the different regions of the Tibetan Plateau. The results also show apparent correlation between snow cover variations in the Tibetan Plateau and summer rainfall in China. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the different impacts exerted on summer rainfall by snow cover anomalies in different regions of the Tibetan Plateau when the snow cover in the Tibetan Plateau is used as a factor for the shortterm prediction of summer climate in China.

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張薇,宋燕,王式功,李智才.青藏高原冬春積雪特征及其對我國夏季降水的影響[J].氣象科技,2019,47(6):941~951

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  • 收稿日期:2018-11-06
  • 定稿日期:2019-05-05
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-12-16
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