ROAD模式渤海10 m風場預報誤差訂正
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環渤海區域科技協同創新基金項目(QYXM201712)“黃渤海區域風、浪智能網格預報協同技術研究”資助


ErrorCorrection of 10 m Wind Forecast in ROAD Model over Bohai Sea
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    摘要:

    使用“遞減平均法”和渤海28個石油、平臺、浮標站資料分析得到的渤海10 m風速逐時格點場,對ROAD模式(Regional Ocean and Atmosphere Model)渤海區域10 m風速預報進行誤差訂正,不同權重系數試驗表明:對于渤海10 m風速預報場,權重系數取0.18,訂正效果最佳,12~72 h預報時效內,月逐時均方根誤差和平均偏差均有明顯改善,分別減小1.0~1.5 m/s和2.3~3.0 m/s;對比渤海北部、西部和中部代表格點72 h預報時效內,逐12 h最大風速評分結果發現:60 h預報時效內,當風速預報在5~6級時,渤海北部、中部和西部訂正后的預報評分大多有所提高;當風速預報在7級時,渤海北部和中部分別在36~72 h和24~48 h,預報評分有提高;在實況出現最多的風力分布范圍內評分提高最多。

    Abstract:

    The decreasing average method and the 10m wind speed gridpoint field analyzed from 28 oil platforms and buoy stations over the Bohai Sea are used to correct the error of the 10 m wind speed forecast in the Bohai area of ROAD model (Regional Ocean and Atmosphere Model). Tests of different weight coefficients indicate: for the forecast field of Bohai 10 mwind speed, the correction is most effective when the weight coefficient is about 0.18.When the lead time is 12 to 72 hours, the monthly hourtohour root mean square error and mean deviation are improved significantly, decreased to 1.0 to 1.5 m/s and 2.3 to 3.0 m/s, respectively. Comparing the representative points of the northern, western and central parts of the Bohai Sea in the lead time of 72 hours, the maximum wind speed scores of every 12 hours turn out: in the lead time of 60 hours, when wind speed forecast is 5 to 6 m/s, most of the forecast scores in the northern, central and western parts of the Bohai Sea are improved. When wind speed forecast is 7 m/s, the maximum wind speed forecast score of the past 12 hours is improved, being 36 to 72 hours and 24 to 48 hour in northern and central parts of the Bohai Sea. The scores are improved most obviously in the range of the wind force distribution with the highest concurrency frequency.

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王亞男,蘇杭,胡田田,郭玉娣,林毅. ROAD模式渤海10 m風場預報誤差訂正[J].氣象科技,2019,47(6):934~940

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  • 收稿日期:2018-10-12
  • 定稿日期:2019-07-30
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-12-16
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