四川盆地西部兩次暖區暴雨過程分析
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國家自然科學基金項目(91337215,41405145,41405036)、中國氣象局預報員專項項目“四川盆地暖區暴雨過程中尺度特征及形成機制分析”(CMAYBY2017062)、中國氣象局核心業務發展專項YBGJXM(2018)1A、四川省氣象局強對流預報創新項目共同資助


Analysis of Two WarmSector Heavy Rain Processes in Western Sichuan Basin
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    摘要:

    利用地面、高空觀測資料、衛星和多普勒雷達資料、ERAInterim再分析資料,對2012年8月17日(12〖DK〗·08)和2017年7月16日(17〖DK〗·07)四川盆地西部兩次暖區暴雨過程的環境條件、中尺度對流系統、雷達回波特征和動力抬升條件等預報著眼點進行了對比分析。結果表明:兩次過程均出現在低層偏南暖濕氣流和地面熱低壓之中,12〖DK〗·08暴雨發生在副高邊緣,水汽輸送條件更好,對流持續時間更長,17〖DK〗·07暴雨發生在高空低渦切變后部,高層冷平流使得位勢不穩定更強,對流強度更劇烈;12〖DK〗·08暴雨中尺度對流系統沿副高外圍自南向北緩慢移動,具有明顯列車效應,其強回波質心高度較低,屬于積狀云為主的混合性降水,17〖DK〗·07暴雨中尺度對流系統在高空低渦后部偏北氣流引導下自北向南快速移動,其強回波質心高度較高,屬于積狀云降水;地面輻合線為對流的發生發展提供了較好的動力觸發條件,兩次過程強降水均隨著地面輻合線的生成而發生,且強降水中心出現在中尺度輻合線附近,并隨著輻合線而移動。

    Abstract:

    By using the ground and upperair observational data, Doppler radar data, FY2E satellite observational data and ERAInterim reanalysis data, the environmental conditions, mesoscale convective systems, the characteristics of Doppler radar reflectivity, the dynamiclifted condition, and forecasting hints are analyzed and compared between two warmsector heavy rain processes occurred on 17 Aug 2012 and 16 July 2017 in the Western Sichuan basin. The results show: (1) Both processes happened under the background of lowlevel warmmoist flows and ground thermal lows; the “12.08” heavy rain occurred on the edge of the subtropical high pressure system; the moisture transport condition was better; and the heavy rainfall maintained longer. The “17.07” heavy rain happened behind the upper vortexshear, the upper cold advection was more obvious, convective unstable energy was more abundant, and the convective system developed stronger. (2) The mesoscale convective system moved slowly on the edge of the subtropicalhigh pressure and had obvious traineffect during the “12.08” heavy rain; the centroid height of the strong echoes was lower, so it was a kind of mixed precipitation dominated by cumulus clouds, but the mesoscale convective system moved quickly in the highlevel north winds during the “17.07” heavy rain, and the centroid height of the strong echoes was higher, so it belongs to cumulus precipitation. (3) There was a good correlation between the heavy precipitation and the mesoscale convergence line: the ground convergence line provided the enough dynamically lifted condition for the heavy precipitation; both heavy precipitation events happened along with the generation of the convergence line and moved around the convergence line.

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楊康權,肖遞祥,羅輝,龍柯吉.四川盆地西部兩次暖區暴雨過程分析[J].氣象科技,2019,47(5):795~808

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  • 收稿日期:2018-07-20
  • 定稿日期:2019-01-04
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-10-27
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