中國冰凍天氣中Ramer算法參數化方案的改進及模擬
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國家自然科學基金項目(41375158, 91644224)資助


Improved Parameterized Scheme of Ramer Algorithm and Simulation of Icing in China
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    摘要:

    冰凍天氣引起的電線覆冰災害對國民經濟的影響越來越嚴重。利用1995—2017年全國1276個站點的地面觀測資料分析了雨凇和霧凇的時空分布特征,將我國冰凍區域大體分為兩個區,雨凇區主要在南方的云貴高原以及湖南、江西等地,而霧凇區則主要在北方的河南北部至華北地區、新疆北疆及東北平原,且冰凍天氣主要出現在冬季,其中1月最多。在獲得了適宜雨凇和霧凇出現的各氣象要素閾值的基礎上,對Ramer算法進行了改進,并使用“配料法”對霧凇區進行預報,通過實際個例的模擬與觀測對比,發現改進的方案較原Ramer方案的空報率由0.60大幅下降至0.31,TS評分由0.37大幅提升至0.58,預報準確率有很大的提升,而“配料法”模擬的霧凇發生范圍與觀測具有極高的一致性,表明該方法對霧凇天氣預報有較高的能力,為探索冰凍天氣預測提供了新的途徑。

    Abstract:

    Wire icing has a significant influence on the development of the national economy. We analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of freezing rain and rime using the field observation data of 1276 sites from 1995 to 2017 in China. We divided the research region into two areas: the freezing rain area mainly in the southern China, such as YunnanGuizhou Plateau, Hunan and Jiangxi, and the rime area mainly in the northern China, such as the northern Henan,North China, the northern Xinjiang and Northeast China Plain. Freezing weather is mainly in winter, most of which happens in January. Based on suitable meteorological factor thresholds of freezing rain and rime, we improved the parameterized scheme of the Ramer algorithm, and used the ingredientsbased methodology to forecast rime. Comparing simulation and observation through a practical case, the missing forecast rate was significantly decreasing from 06 in original scheme to 0.31 in the improved scheme, and TS score which indicated the accuracy of the forecast increased sharply from 037 to 058.The range of rime simulation using the ingredientsbased methodology was highly consistent with observation of rime. It shows that this method has higher ability to forecast rime weather, which provides a new approach for the exploration of icing.

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徐婉笛,周寧,韓永翔,梁允,李哲,陸正奇,劉唯佳.中國冰凍天氣中Ramer算法參數化方案的改進及模擬[J].氣象科技,2019,47(4):673~682

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-02
  • 定稿日期:2018-12-10
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-08-27
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