DERF2.0模式對寧夏不同時間尺度降水的預測評估
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

寧夏回族自治區重點研發計劃項目(2016KJHM129)、氣象預報業務關鍵技術發展專項子項目(YBGJXM(2019)0607)和寧夏短期氣候預測技術研發創新團隊項目共同資助


Precipitation Evaluation of Derf 2.0 under Different Time Scales in Ningxia
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    基于DERF2.0 1983—2013年回報和2016—2017年預測的降水資料以及寧夏19個評分站降水實測資料,采用短期氣候預測業務中常用的檢驗方法,對DERF2.0預測的寧夏未來1~50 d月、候尺度降水及持續性異常降水過程進行了檢驗評估。結果表明:DERF2.0對月降水趨勢異常預測綜合評分(Ps)平均為53.2%,超前1~10 d預測效果相差不大; Ps超過60%〖JP2〗的僅有4月和11月,且年際間波動較大,最差年與最好年相差近30%。DERF2.0〖JP〗對月異常少雨預測Ps高于異常多雨,春、秋季Ps較高,夏季相對較低;對多雨年份降水預測Ps高于少雨年份。DERF2.0超前30 d之內預測的候降水和實況以正相關為主,第1候相關最好,9月至次年3月相關系數相對較大;超前30 d之內預測的候降水較實況偏大30%左右;對未來1~6候降水趨勢預測正確率為40.8%,偏多趨勢正確率達79.5%,明顯高于偏少趨勢; 1月趨勢預測正確率最小,8月最大;候降水偏多趨勢預測正確率冬季高于夏季,偏少趨勢則相反;隨著超前時間的增長,趨勢預測正確率下降;趨勢預測正確率自北向南增大。DERF2.0對持續性異常降水過程預測的正確率為60.3%,超前時段為4~14 d,對全區性過程預測效果較好,同一次過程南部預測效果好于北部,預測的降水量小于實況降水量。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of the hindcast data of the National Climate Centre secondgeneration monthly Dynamic Extended Range Forecast operational system (DERF2.0) from 1983 to 2013 from 19 observed stations in Ningxia, the predicted precipitation is evaluated by operational methods in shortterm climate prediction. The results show: the monthly averaged PS (Propensity Score) of DEFR2.0 is 53.2%, and there is little difference among the results of 1 to 10 day lead times. But the forecast quality is unstable, with PS exceeding 60% only in the April and November, and the difference between best year and worst year is nearly 30%, reflecting the large interannual variability. DERF 2.0 has better performance in the lessrain months rather than in the morerain months, as well as in spring and autumn than rather summer. There is positive correlation between the predicted pentad precipitation by DERF2.0 with the lead time of less than 30 days and actual precipitation, the greatest in the first pentad and larger from September to March next year. The predicted pentad precipitation is about 30% larger than the actual precipitation. The accuracy of predicted precipitation trends of next 1 to 6 pentads is 40.8%.The accuracy is 79.5% in the pentads with more precipitation, which is obviously higher than in the pentads with less precipitation. The accuracy of trend prediction is the smallest in January and the largest in August. The accuracy of trend prediction in the pentads with more precipitation in winter is larger than that in summer and the accuracy of trend prediction in the pentads with less precipitation in summer is larger than that in winter. The trend prediction accuracy declines with the prolongation of lead time and increases from north to south. The prediction accuracy of persistent abnormal precipitation is 60.3% by DERF 2.0 with the lead time of 4 to 14 days. The better prediction effect is found for the whole regional precipitation process. The prediction accuracy in the southern part is greater than that in the northern part for the same process, and the predicted precipitation is less than actual precipitation.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

孫銀川,鄭廣芬,王素艷,李欣,張雯,楊建玲,朱曉煒,王璠,高娜,高睿娜,馬陽. DERF2.0模式對寧夏不同時間尺度降水的預測評估[J].氣象科技,2019,47(4):631~638

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-20
  • 定稿日期:2019-03-01
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2019-08-27
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>