基于BCC_CSM模式的山西省盛夏降水降尺度預測
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山西省氣象局重點課題(SXKZDQH20185103)、中央引導地方科技發展專項(ZY18C12)、國家重點基礎研究發展計劃(2017YFA0603701)資助


A Statistical Downscaling Method for Midsummer Precipitation Prediction in Shanxi Based on BCC_CSM Model
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    摘要:

    降尺度方法是目前彌補氣候系統模式預測結果不足的重要手段,為獲得具有較高預測技巧的山西盛夏降水客觀化預測產品,本文選取1990—2017年6月起報的BCC_CSM氣候系統模式輸出盛夏結果和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析資料同時與山西盛夏降水異常典型模態具有統計顯著的因子,利用逐步回歸方法建立了山西盛夏降水降尺度模型。進一步研究發現,降尺度模型的預測能力與BCC_CSM對影響山西盛夏降水關鍵區海溫的預測技巧密切相關。檢驗回報與觀測的時間和空間距平相關系數(TCC和ACC)、回報與觀測的距平符號一致率(PC)以及趨勢異常綜合評分(PS),表明降尺度模型對山西盛夏降水的預測技巧較BCC_CSM輸出有明顯改進,BCC_CSM模擬降水TCC在山西全區沒有通過95%信度檢驗,降尺度模型回報TCC在山西大部分地區通過95%信度檢驗,中南部通過99%信度檢驗;相應的ACC由-0.02提高到0.35,PC由53.3%提高到66.8%,PS由65.6%提高到78.9%。2018年盛夏業務試運行,ACC為0.42,PS為70.8%。

    Abstract:

    The prediction skills for climate models can be improved by using the statistical downscaling method. In order to gain better and objective midsummer precipitation prediction in Shanxi, a statistical downscaling method for the midsummer precipitation anomaly in Shanxi is studied based on BCC_CSM output, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) and station precipitation in Shanxi during 1990-2017. The typical anomalous patterns of midsummer precipitation in Shanxi are analyzed, and then predictors associated with SST from BCC_CSM output are identified in term of statistical significance to the typical anomalous patterns of midsummer precipitation in Shanxi. The multifactor stepwise regression is used in statistical downscaling prediction. The improvement of prediction skills in downscaling results are apparent, as measured by the temporal and spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (TCC and ACC), the prediction consistency of the anomaly sign (PC), and the prediction score (PS) between hindcasts and observations. TCC from downscaling results crosses the 95% significance threshold in most parts of Shanxi and exhibits 99% confidence level in the middlesouthern Shanxi, and the simulated precipitation from BCC_CSM shows too small value to reach statistical significance in Shanxi. ACC increases from -0.02 for BCC_CSM to 0.35 for downscaling results, and the corresponding PC and PS are improved from 53.3% to 66.8% and from 65.6% to 78.9%, respectively. In the operational midsummer precipitation prediction in 2018 by using above downscaling method, ACC is 0.42 and PS is 70.8%.

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引用本文

張冬峰,王永光,張國宏.基于BCC_CSM模式的山西省盛夏降水降尺度預測[J].氣象科技,2019,47(4):622~630

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  • 收稿日期:2018-07-28
  • 定稿日期:2019-01-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-08-27
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