基于最大熵模型的中國血吸蟲病傳播風險評估
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上海市氣象與健康重點實驗室開放基金課題“基于最大熵模型的我國血吸蟲病傳播潛勢研究”(QXJK201405)資助


Transmission Risk Assessment of Schistosomiasis in China Based on Maximum Entropy Model
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    摘要:

    氣候生態因子是影響媒介傳播性疾病流行風險的重要環境因素。本研究根據文獻調研選取影響中國血吸蟲病傳播風險的潛在氣候生態因子,基于各潛在因子的作用大小確定影響中國血吸蟲病傳播風險的主導因子,發展主導氣候生態因子〖CD*2〗血吸蟲病關系的最大熵模型并評價其對中國區域血吸蟲病傳播風險的模擬效果。結果表明:影響中國血吸蟲病傳播風險的氣候生態因子有年降水量、最暖月平均氣溫、穩定通過10 ℃持續日數和增強型植被指數(EVI),其累積貢獻率為研究因子總貢獻的98.6%;最大熵模型能較好地揭示中國血吸蟲病傳播風險與主導氣候生態因子關系,其受試者特征曲線(ROC)評價結果為“非常好”(AUC為0.917);模型模擬的中國血吸蟲病傳播中高風險區位于江蘇南部、浙江北部、廣西中部、廣東北部、云南北部、四川中部及湖北東部、湖南東北部、安徽中部、江西北部等地。研究結果對氣候環境影響下中國血吸蟲傳播風險評估和疾病預防宏觀對策制定具有工具價值和參考意義。

    Abstract:

    Climatic and ecological factors have significant impacts on vectorborne diseases. The potential climatic and ecological factors affecting transmission risk of 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China are selected based on previous research results, and then the dominant factors are determined by contribution percentages to the transmission risk of 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China. At last, the relation model between 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis 〖WTBZ〗and dominant factors based on MaxEnt to model the transmission risk of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China is developed and its modelling results are assessed as well. The results show that the dominant climatic and ecological factors affecting the transmission risk of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China are annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month, the number of days with temperature over 10 ℃ and enhanced vegetation index, and the accumulated contribution percentage account for 98.6% of the used potential factors. According to the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Area Under Curve (AUC) is 0917; i.e., the MaxEnt model based on dominant factors affecting 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 can model the transmission risk in China “very good”. The MaxEnt model results show that the medium and high transmission risk zone of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China are located in Southern Jiangsu, Northern Zhejiang, Central Guangxi, Northern Guangdong, Northern Yunnan, Central Sichuan and Eastern Hubei, Northeastern Hunan, Central Anhui and Northern Jiangxi, etc. In conclusion, MaxEnt can model well the transmission risk of 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China under the impact of climatic and ecological factors, which can provide a tool to assess the impact of climate change on the transmission risk of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China and reference to make preventive measures.

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段居琦,周驥,黃大鵬,劉綠柳.基于最大熵模型的中國血吸蟲病傳播風險評估[J].氣象科技,2019,47(3):520~525

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  • 收稿日期:2018-06-22
  • 定稿日期:2019-01-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-06-25
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