利用探空資料確定呼和浩特地區3類強對流天氣預警閾值
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中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2017014)資助


Using Radiosonde Data to Determine Warning Thresholds of Three Types of Strong Convective Weather in Hohhot Area
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    摘要:

    利用呼和浩特探空站計算的16個物理量,分析了2012—2016年6—8月呼和浩特地區的冰雹、雷暴大風及短時強降水天氣過程中各物理量差異,結果表明:①訂正后的(對流有效位能)CAPE大于等于1000 J〖DK〗·kg-1、0 ℃層高度約4200 m左右,-20 ℃層約在7200 m左右,500 hPa和850 hPa溫差達-25 ℃,逆溫層高度在2 km以上基本可以判定為冰雹天氣;②短時強降水對水汽的依賴度更高,且具有更強的熱力不穩定性,低層的溫度露點差、500 hPa與850 hPa的假相當位溫差Δθse(500-850)、大氣〖JP2〗可降水量PW也是短時強降水天氣的重要判據;③訂正后的(下沿對流有效位能)DCAPE值雷暴大風明顯大于冰雹和短時強降水,約為其他2類強對流天氣的2倍,訂正后的CAPE略小于其他2類強對流天氣。根據四分位數法、所占比例≥70%以及均值法界定各類預報因子閾值大小,進而確立了呼和浩特地區強對流天氣預警指標。經檢驗均值法確定的閾值指標命中率均達到50%以上,可參考價值較高。〖JP〗

    Abstract:

    In this paper, based on the 16 physical quantities calculated by the Hohhot radiosonde station, the differences in physical quantities between the hail, thunderstorm gale and shortterm heavy precipitation in Hohhot from June to August 2012 to 2016 are analyzed. The results show that: (1) If the revised CAPE is greater than or equal to 1000 J〖DK〗·kg-1, the 0 ℃ layer height is about 4200 m and the -20 ℃ layer height around 7200 m, the temperature differences at 500 hPa and 850 hPa up to -25 ℃, and the height of the atmospheric temperature inversion layer is above 2 km. It can be basically determined that hail weather will occur. (2) Shortterm heavy precipitation depends more on the water vapor and has stronger thermal instability. The lowerlevel difference between temperature and dew point, Δθse (500-850) and Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) are also important criterions for shortterm heavy precipitation weather. (3) The early warning indexes of strong convective weather in Hohhot can be established as: The revised DCAPE of a thunderstorm gale is significantly larger than that of hail and shortterm heavy precipitation weather, which is about twice as large as the other two types of weather, while the revised CAPE is slightly smaller. Finally, the threshold sizes of all kinds of forecast factors can be defined by means of the quartile division method, the method of ≥70% proportion (the proportion of severe convective weather samples is more than 70%) and the mean threshold method. The statistical test indicates that the hit rate of the threshold index determined by the mean method, up to more than 50%, is of higher reference value.

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袁慧敏.利用探空資料確定呼和浩特地區3類強對流天氣預警閾值[J].氣象科技,2019,47(3):476~485

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  • 收稿日期:2018-07-14
  • 定稿日期:2019-01-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-06-25
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