基于RMAPS的一次局地強降水過程成因分析
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江蘇省自然科學基金面上項目(BK20181412)、國家自然科學基金面上項目(41575049,41475050,41675072)和天津市氣象局氣象預報預警創新團隊共同資助


Causal Analysis of a ShortTime Strong Rainfall Based on RMAPS and Observation Data
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    摘要:

    2017年8月8日午夜,天津北辰區出現局地短時強降水,小時雨強超過70 mm〖DK〗·h-1。利用RMAPS(Rapidrefresh Multiscale Analysis and Prediction System)和觀測資料,通過多種資料疊加、雷達回波參數量化和低層風場反演等方法分析了降水成因,結果表明: ①降水是由MβCS(Mesoβscale Convective System)后向傳播過程中尾部的多單體雷暴造成的,傳播過程中單體合并對雷暴系統的結構及增強有重要影響,合并后系統的回波體積參數V40(反射率≥40 dBz的體積)增長了23.3%,在V40增長之前,變率參數FV40-up6(6 km以上40 dBz回波體積6 min的變化)出現了“突降”,這對雷暴系統即將發展有預警意義;②冷池出流與地面東南風形成的輻合線是對流系統維持的關鍵,中低層切變線也為對流的發生發展提供了有利的動力條件;伴隨著強降水,對流有效位能CAPE由峰值急速下降,低層垂直風切變指數α驟增,這揭示了不穩定能量、垂直風切變與對流過程之間的關系;③降水落區與不穩定參數SWEAT的大值區對應,預警時間3 h,來自渤海的地面暖濕帶與假相當位溫密集帶的交匯處也是落區臨近預報的關注點。

    Abstract:

    An exceptional shorttime strong rainfall happened in the Beichen district of Tianjin at the midnight of 8 Aug 2017 and its intensity surpassed 70 mm·h-1. Using the methods of multidata superposition analysis, quantitative analysis of radar echo parameters, and lowlevel wind field retrieval, etc., RMAPS (Rapidrefresh Multiscale Analysis and Prediction System) products and various observation data are used to analyze this rainfall. The results indicate: (1) The multicell storms in the southern extremity of MβCS (Mesoβscale Convective System) during the backpropagation caused this rainfall. The merging process had an important impact on the structure and enhancement of the storm system. After merging, echo volume parameter 〖WTBX〗V〖WTBZ〗40 〖KG*3〗(the volume of the reflectivity above 40 dBz) increased by 23.3%. Before the rise of 〖WTBX〗V〖WTBZ〗40, variable parameter 〖WTBX〗F〖WTBZ〗V40-up6 (the change of strong echo volume of above 40 dBz above 6 km height in 6 min) suddenly dropped, indicating that the echo was about to develop explosively. (2) The ground convergence line formed by the cold pool outflow and surface southeast winds was the key to maintain the convective system; the low level wind shear also influenced the trigger and development of convection; accompanied by heavy rainfall, CAPE suddenly dropped from the peak and the low level vertical wind shear index α increased, indicating the relationship among unstable energy, vertical wind shear, and convection process. (3) The large value area of the instability parameter SWEAT had an early indication of the heavy rainfall area; the lead time was about 3 hours; and the location where the surface warmwet area from the Bohai Sea and pseudo equivalent temperature dense zone met was the focus of falling area nowcast.

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陶局,趙海坤,易笑園,劉一瑋,賈惠珍.基于RMAPS的一次局地強降水過程成因分析[J].氣象科技,2019,47(2):299~311

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  • 收稿日期:2018-05-04
  • 定稿日期:2018-12-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-04-24
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