南支槽對四川地區降水影響的定量分析
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2015年度國家科技支撐計劃(2015BAC03B00)、高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災害四川省重點實驗室課題“四川盆地持續性暴雨預報方法研究”資助


Quantitative Analysis of Influence of South Branch Trough on Precipitation in Sichuan Area
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    摘要:

    對1981—2017年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析資料采用客觀方法識別南支槽活動,并結合四川地區156個國家觀測站的逐日降水資料,統計分析了南支槽的時空分布特征及其對四川地區降水的影響。結果表明:①南支槽平均每年出現47.9次,月分布呈雙峰型,1月和5月出現頻次最高;②出現最多的區域為孟加拉灣以北、青藏高原南側的90°E附近,22°~24°N地區;③11月至次年1月為南支槽的增強期,南支槽強度大致上隨著經度的增加而減小,但在86°E和96°E附近為增強區;④南支槽活動同期,約73.97%的對應時段四川地區有降水過程,降水頻率大值區主要位于盆地西南部和南部;⑤南支槽位置偏西時四川地區更容易出現降水過程,但呈現出較強降水過程對應的南支槽強度較弱的現象。

    Abstract:

    An objective method is used to identify the Southern Branch Trough (SBT) activity by means of the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset from 1981 to 2017. Based on the daily SBT activity and the precipitation data from 156 national observation stations in Sichuan, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of SBT and its impact on Sichuan precipitation are investigated. The results show that SBT appears 47.9 times per year and the monthly distribution is bimodal, with the highest frequencies occurring in January and May. The most frequent activitive area is around 90°E and 22° to 24°N, to the south of the QinghaiXizang Plateau and north of the Bay of Bengal. SBT usually enhances from November to January. The intensity of SBT generally decreases with increasing longitude, but there are enhanced areas near 86°E and 96°E. About 73.97% of SBT activities will produce precipitation processes in Sichuan, with the high frequency areas located in the southeast and south parts of the basin. When the South Branch is westward, Sichuan is more prone to precipitation. However, precipitation processes with weaker SBT intensity are generally heavier.

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馮良敏,陳朝平.南支槽對四川地區降水影響的定量分析[J].氣象科技,2019,47(2):262~268

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  • 收稿日期:2018-03-15
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-24
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-04-24
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