青藏高原東北部強冷空氣次數變化特征及其影響
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國氣象局氣候變化專項項目(CCSF201611、CCSF201853)、青海省氣象局科技項目“青藏高原東北部冬半年持續性低溫事件研究及預報方法探討”共同資助


Variation Characteristics of Occurrence Frequency of Strong Cold Air Processes in Northeastern QinghaiTibet Plateau
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    摘要:

    基于青藏高原東北部68個國家氣象站資料,統計了1961—2015年各站和全區月、季、年強冷空氣的次數資料,利用氣候診斷方法分析了強冷空氣的變化特征及其影響,結果表明:在空間尺度上,1961—2015年強冷空氣次數全年20站、春季11站、夏季17站、秋季12站、冬季8站,呈顯著的減少趨勢。在時間尺度上,1961—2015年以來,青藏高原東北部年平均強冷空氣次數每10年減少0.401次,呈顯著的減少趨勢;該區域夏季和秋季平均強冷空氣次數每10年分別減少0.094、0.119次,也呈顯著的減少趨勢,春季和冬季每10年分別減少0.087、0.076次,減少的趨勢不顯著。在時段尺度上,青藏高原東北部年平均強冷空氣次數1983—2014年呈顯著減少趨勢,而1962—1982年僅存在減少的趨勢。1961—2015年青藏高原東北部年平均強冷空氣次數減少是由年平均最低氣溫顯著升高和年大風日數顯著減少而導致的。

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    Based on the data from the national meteorological stations in the northeastern QinghaiTibet Plateau, the occurrence frequencies of monthly, quarterly and annual strong cold air for each station and the entire region from 1961 and 2015 are calculated, and then we analyzes the characteristics of strong cold air and its influences with the climate diagnosis method. It is found: In terms of spatial scale, from 1961 to 2015, there were strong cold air averagely in 20 stations collected throughout a year, 11 stations in spring, 17 stations in summer, 12 stations in autumn and 8 stations in winter, showing a significant decline. In terms of time scale, from 1961 to 2015, the annual occurrence frequency of strong cold air influencing the northeast QinghaiTibet Plateau decreased by 0.401 per 10 years, showing an obvious decrease tendency. In addition, the occurrence frequencies of strong cold air in summer and autumn in this region decreased by 0.094 and 0.119 per 10 years, respectively, also presenting a significant decline. However, the annual strong cold air events in spring and winter were decreased by 0.087 and 0.076 time per 10 years, respectively, without significant decline. Moreover, the occurrence frequency of strong cold air in the northeastern QinghaiTibet Plateau showed a significant decline from 1983 to 2014 and insignificant decline from 1962 to 1982. With respect to its influence, the annual occurrence frequency of strong cold air in the northeastern QinghaiTibet Plateau reduced due to the significant increase of average minimum temperature and a significant decrease in the number of strong wind days from 1961 to 2015.

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楊昭明,時盛博,張調風,馬占良,李萬志.青藏高原東北部強冷空氣次數變化特征及其影響[J].氣象科技,2019,47(2):244~254

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  • 收稿日期:2018-01-30
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-24
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-04-24
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