太湖藍藻水華形成的適宜氣象指標
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江蘇省基礎研究計劃太湖專項(BK2007745)、江蘇省科技支撐計劃項目(BE2011840)、江蘇省氣象局重點項目(KZ201403)共同資助


Suitable Meteorological Indicators for Formation of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Taihu Lake
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    摘要:

    根據2005—2017年衛星遙感反演的太湖藍藻水華信息,利用區域氣象觀測數據分析各類氣象因子對太湖藍藻深水華形成的影響,結果表明:①在日平均氣溫為0~35 ℃區間內會出現藍藻聚集現象,其中最適宜氣溫區間為15.1~35 ℃,該區間內累計出現藍藻水華的面積占比達90%、出現大面積藍藻水華占比達93%;②在衛星觀測到藍藻前6 h,平均風速為0.2~4.8 m/s區間內能觀測到藍藻水華,其中最適宜的平均風速區間為0.5~3.4 m/s,該區間內藍藻水華累計出現次數占比達94.7%,大面積藍藻水華主要出現在平均風速<2.0 m/s的情況下,占比89%;③降水總體上呈負效應,但在觀測到有大面積藍藻水華的情況下,前24 h有小雨(<10 mm)的情形與總降水次數之比達88%,說明小雨的適度擾動有利于形成大面積藍藻水華;④日照充足有利于藍藻生長,但并非藍藻水華形成的必要條件。在此基礎上建立的多元回歸綜合氣象指數模型,擬合結果較好,通過了0.001的顯著性檢驗。

    Abstract:

    According to the information of cyanobacteria bloom on the Taihu Lake retrieved from satellite remote sensing from 2005 to 2017 and the regional meteorological observation data, it is shown that the Taihu Lake cyanobacteria bloom occurred in the daily average temperature range of 0 to 35 ℃, with the highincidence interval being 15.1 to 35 ℃, within which the bloom cyanobacterial area accounts for 90%, and the largescale cyanobacterial bloom (the area of a single cyanobacteria bloom event exceeds 20% of the surface area of the Taihu Lake, 468 km2) accounts for 93%. Within 6 hours before the satellite passing, in the average wind speed being 0.2 to 4.8 m/s, the cyanobacterial bloom can be observed, with the most suitable wind speed range being 05 to 34 m/s, within which the occurrence number of cyanobacterial bloom accounts for 94.7%. The largescale cyanobacterial bloom mainly occurred when the average wind speed was 0 to 20 m/s, accounting for 89%. The wind direction mainly affects the movement and spatial distribution of cyanobacterial bloom. Precipitation generally has a negative impact on the occurrence and development of cyanobacterial bloom. While there occurred was largearea cyanobacteria bloom, the situation that there was small precipitation (<10 mm) in the first 24 hours accounts for 88%, indicating that the moderate disturbance of light rainfall is conducive to the formation of largeareas cyanobacteria blooms. Sufficient sunshine may be one of the conditions for cyanobacterial bloom, but not a necessary condition. On the basis of this, a multivariate regression comprehensive meteorological index model is established, and the fitting result is good, passed the 0.001level significance test.

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杭鑫,羅曉春,謝小萍,李亞春.太湖藍藻水華形成的適宜氣象指標[J].氣象科技,2019,47(1):171~178

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  • 收稿日期:2018-04-10
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-24
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-02-27
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