城市化對山東省極端氣溫事件的影響
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山東省自然科學基金項目(ZR2015DL001)、教育部人文社會科學研究項目(16YJCZH089)資助


Effect of Urbanization on Extreme Temperature Events in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    根據山東省氣溫觀測資料,綜合利用人口格網、土地利用和夜晚燈光數據劃分了城市站和鄉村站,采用基于觀測資料的對比分析法研究山東省極端氣溫事件的城市化影響。結果表明:①除暖夜日數,暖(冷)事件在城市化的推動下會增加(減少);其中,暖指數的城市化影響貢獻率分別是40.66%(高溫)、19.32%(暖晝)、1.02%(暖夜),冷指數的城市化影響貢獻率分別是2.31%(低溫)、5.72%(冷晝)、5.55%(冷夜),可見暖事件(除暖夜日數)的城市化影響貢獻率與冷事件相比更顯著,且由最高氣溫計算得出的極端氣溫指數的城市化影響貢獻率更大。②城市化會促使極端氣溫暖事件平均場的強度變大,同等強度暖事件的發生范圍較之前更廣,而冷事件受城市化發展的影響在強度和范圍的表現卻與暖事件的表現剛好相反;相同的是城市化促使極端氣溫冷暖事件平均場分布的空間差異性較之前均變大。③極端氣溫冷暖事件的突變時間會受城市化發展的影響,使其突變時間提前1~3年。④冷暖事件的持續時間會隨著城市的不斷發展而變化,其中由最高氣溫計算得出的指數受影響更大。⑤極端氣溫冷暖指數之間的城市化非對稱性影響具有復雜的差異性。

    Abstract:

    According to the observation data of temperature in Shandong Province, using the data of population grid, land use, and night lights comprehensively, the urban and rural stations are divided. The method of comparative analysis based on the observation data is used to study the influence of urbanization on extreme temperature events in Shandong Province. The results show that: (1) Under the push of urbanization, warm events (except the warm night days) increase, while cold events decrease. The contribution rate of warm index to urbanization impact is 40.66% (high temperature), 19.32% (warm day), 1.02% (warm night), and the urbanization impact contribution rate of cold index is 2.31% (low temperature), 5.72% (cold day), 5.55% (cold night), respectively. The contribution to urbanization impact of warm events (except the warm night days) is greater than that of the cold events; in addition, the contribution of extreme temperature indices calculated by the highest temperature is greater. (2)Urbanization strengthens the average field intensity of warm extreme events. The scopes of the equalstrength warm events become more widely than before, but the intensity and scope of cold events are contrary to the performance of warm events under the influence of urbanization. Urbanization prompts the space difference of the average field distributions of extreme warm and cold events more significantly than before. (3) Urbanization may lead to the variation of mutation time, 1 to 3 years earlier, of extreme temperature indexes. (4) Urbanization may affect the duration of extreme temperature events, especially the index associated with the highest temperature. (5) The asymmetrical influence of urbanization between extreme temperature indexes is of complex and diversity.

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于鳳碩,廉麗姝,李寶富,初翠翠.城市化對山東省極端氣溫事件的影響[J].氣象科技,2019,47(1):129~139

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  • 收稿日期:2018-01-10
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-02-27
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