2016年廣東一次罕見寒潮雨雪冰凍天氣過程分析
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廣東省氣象局科學技術研究項目(2014A02)、廣東省氣象局科技創新團隊(201703)、中山市科技計劃項目(2015B2351)和廣東省氣象部門百名英才助推計劃基金共同資助


Analysis of a Rare Cryogenic Freezing Rain and Snow Event in Cold Wave Weather over Guangdong Province in 2016
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    摘要:

    利用常規氣象觀測資料、NCEP/NCAR再分析資料,分析了2016年1月下旬廣東罕見大范圍雨雪冰凍天氣過程的大尺度環流和冷空氣活動特征、動力和水汽條件,采用濕球溫度討論了降水相態和大氣溫度垂直結構特征。結果表明:此次寒潮過程環流形勢為橫槽轉豎型,橫槽下擺引導強冷空氣向南迅猛爆發,以及伴隨著異常強的冷高壓、鋒區、冷溫度中心和冷溫度平流的冷空氣主力南侵,是本次寒潮過程粵北和廣東中南部溫度陡降的主要原因;700 hPa冷暖空氣的輻合,以及700 hPa西南氣流從孟加拉灣輸送水汽經中南半島北部到北部灣至華南地區加強并輻合,是造成雨雪冰凍天氣產生的重要動力和水汽條件;在有利的大尺度環流、動力和水汽條件配合下,降水相態的變化與暖層強度及濕球溫度密切相關,暖層的明顯減弱及暖層下方濕球溫度低于0 ℃冷凍層的強度增強,導致降水相態由雨向雪、雨夾雪、霰等固態降水轉變;在發生固態降水的平均時段內,粵北地區中低層濕球溫度均低于0 ℃,無明顯融化作用,產生純雪或雨夾雪的可能性大;而位置偏南的珠江三角洲地區仍存在淺薄的暖層,因此主要出現雨夾雪或霰。當寒潮入侵涉及華南降水相態預報時,需要注重實況探空和模式預報探空的大氣溫濕垂直結構的分析,更應重視濕球溫度的研究和應用。

    Abstract:

    Based on the routine observations and NCEP reanalysis data (4 times a day), the circulation background, the characteristics of cold air activity, dynamical and water vapor conditions, especially the features of precipitation phase state, and the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature using wetbulb temperature (WBT) are analyzed for the rare cryogenic freezing rain and snow event over Guangdong province in late January 2016. The results show that the primary reason of temperature sudden drop in the north and centralsouth parts of Guangdong Province during this cold wave event is that strong cold air outbroke when the transverse trough swinged southward and the severe cold air moved southward with abnormally strong cold high, frontal zone, cold temperature center and advection in the atmospheric circulation pattern of the transverse trough turning into vertical. The favorable dynamical conditions for the convergence of warm and cold air at 700 hPa and water vapor conditions for the convergence in South China of southwesterly of 700 hPa carrying water vapor from the Bay of Bengal across the north of the IndoChina Peninsula and Beibu Gulf resulted in this weather process. The precipitation phase state was closely related to the intensity of the warm layer (temperature above 0 ℃) and WBT under the favorable circulation, dynamical and water vapor conditions. The warm layer weakened significantly and the subfreezing layer with WBT below 0 ℃ underneath strengthened, leading to the transition of precipitation phase state from rain to solidstate, i.e. snow, sleet and graupel. When the solidstate precipitation appeared, there was no melting effect because of the WBT below 0 ℃ in the middle and lower atmosphere; thus snow or sleet was more likely to be present in the north of Guangdong Province, whereas sleet or graupel was mainly present in the Pearl River Delta, which locates further south due to the existence of a weak warm layer. Therefore, the use of upperair sounding and model forecast sounding data, particularly WBT in the analysis of the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature should be paid more attention during cold wave weather involving precipitation phase state prediction.

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王曉芳,程正泉,姜麗萍.2016年廣東一次罕見寒潮雨雪冰凍天氣過程分析[J].氣象科技,2019,47(1):106~115

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  • 收稿日期:2017-11-29
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-30
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-02-27
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