東亞夏季風異常與黃淮地區夏季降水的關系
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山東省氣象局重點課題(2017sdqxz07)資助


Relationship between East Asian Summer Monsoon Anomaly and Summer Precipitation in Huanghuai Region
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    摘要:

    本文選取最適當的夏季風指數確定黃淮地區的強弱夏季風年,并結合近55年該地區夏季日降水資料,討論了該地區在強弱夏季風年降水的差異及其形成原因。結果表明:①強夏季風年,該區域東半部降水偏多,西半部降水偏少;弱夏季風年反之。②1979年之前,該區域降水存在周期3~5年的年際變化,之后周期演變為15年。③該區域降水存在低頻振蕩特征。在強夏季風年,7~14天周期最顯著;在弱夏季風年,10~18天與25~30天的周期最顯著。④強夏季風年,黃淮地區有2段雨季,分別出現在7月初與8月中下旬;但在弱夏季風年,主雨季不明顯。⑤強弱年降水的諸多差異,主要歸因于歐亞中高緯度大尺度環流的波列不同及偏南季風的水汽輸送差異。⑥春季海溫異常對當年黃淮地區的降水有指示作用。在拉尼娜年,黃淮地區東部降水偏多,西部降水偏少;在厄爾尼諾年反之。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the most suitable summer monsoon index is selected to determine the summer monsoon year in the Huanghuai region. Combining with the summer daily precipitation data in recent 55 years, the difference of summer rainfall between strong and weak years and the formation causes are discussed. The main conclusions are as follows: In the strong summer monsoon year, the precipitation in the east is more than that in the west, and in the weak summer monsoon year, on the contrary. Before 1979, the precipitation in the region had a cyclic interannual variation with the periods being 3 to 5 years, but after 1979, the period evolved to 15 years. At the same time, the regional precipitation was characterized by low frequency oscillation. In the strong summer monsoon years, there were 7 to 14day oscillations and two rainy seasons which occurred in early July and late August, respectively; in the weak summer monsoon years, the low frequency oscillations of 10 to 18 day and 25 to 30 days were remarkable, but the main rainy season was not obvious, and precipitation was less. The differences of annual precipitation between strong and weak summer monsoon years are mainly attributed to the different wave trains of the largescale circulation background in the midhigh latitudes of the Eurasia and the difference of water vapor transport in the southerly monsoon. The spring SST anomaly can indicate the precipitation in the Huanghuai region. In La Nina years, the precipitation in the eastern part of the Huanghuai area was more than that in the western part, and in the El Nino years, on the contrary.

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鄭麗娜,張子涵,王旭,賈小芹.東亞夏季風異常與黃淮地區夏季降水的關系[J].氣象科技,2019,47(1):62~69

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  • 收稿日期:2018-03-09
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-24
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-02-27
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