江西北部一次局地大暴雨過程分析
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中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2013036)資助


Analysis of a Local Heavy Rainstorm Process in Northern Jiangxi
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    摘要:

    利用常規氣象觀測資料、區域加密自動站資料、GPSPWV數據和NCEP 1°×1°再分析資料等,對2012年8月21日南昌短時大暴雨過程(8〖DK〗·21南昌大暴雨)進行分析,重點討論了局地大暴雨的形成原因。結果表明:中緯度低壓槽、東北方副高和東南方熱帶系統三者鼎立,致使江西北部聚集了高能量的不穩定大氣,并在南昌附近產生局地強對流運動,導致了江西北部局地大暴雨的產生;地形抬升是8〖DK〗·21南昌大暴雨的直接誘因,由于梅嶺山脈抬升作用,使不穩定大氣上升到其自由對流高度以上,在梅嶺山脈附近發展成中尺度氣旋,氣旋沿冷暖空氣所形成的中尺度輻合線移到南昌市區附近,并在此地維持了3 h;8〖DK〗·21南昌大暴雨是由多個強或特強的中小尺度降雨中心組成的,地面中尺度氣旋、高CAPE值、高θse、強的水汽輻合等因素使得MCS得以長時間維持,使得中小尺度降雨中心在南昌市周邊源源不斷地生成發展??偨Y(8〖DK〗·21南昌大暴雨)流型配置,以此構造出這種弱西南氣流條件下的預報概念模型,可以為預報員捕捉到此類局地大暴雨天氣提供技術指導。

    Abstract:

    Based on the conventional observation data, regional intensive automatic weather station data, GPSPWV data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, the shorttime heavy rainfall in Nanchang on 21August 2012 is analyzed. The discussion is focused on the causes of the local heavy rainstorm. The results show: The confrontation of a midlatitude trough, the Northeast Subtropical High, and a southeastern tropical system resulted in the accumulation of high energy unstable atmosphere and strong convective movement near Nanchang, and then led to the local rainstorm. The topographic uplift was a direct inducement of the rainstorm. Due to the uplifting effect of the Meiling Mountains, the unstable atmosphere ascended above its free convection height and developed into mesoscale cyclones near the Meiling Mountains. The cyclone moved along the mesoscale convergence line to the vicinity of Nanchang, and maintained for three hours. The rainstorm was composed of a number of strong or extrastrong meso and microscale rainfall centers. The ground mesoscale cyclone, high CAPE values, high and strong water vapor convergence made the MCSs maintained for a long time, which led to mesoscale rainfall centers repeatedly generated and developed around Nanchang. Summarizing the rainstorm flow pattern, we can construct the predictive conceptual model under the condition of weak southwest airflow and provide technical guidance for forecasters to capture such local heavy rainstorms.

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龍余良,吳凡,闕志萍,鄧德文,章開美.江西北部一次局地大暴雨過程分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(6):1211~1220

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  • 收稿日期:2018-01-03
  • 定稿日期:2018-07-26
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-12-27
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