CMIP5全球氣候模式對1981—2005年東北地表溫度的模擬分析
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國家重點研發計劃(2018YFC0809400)、北京科技新星計劃項目(XX2016067)和國家電網公司總部科技項目“基于廣域時空大數據分析的風電功率預測方法研究與應用”資助


Land Surface Temperature Simulations of CMIP5 Models over Northeast China during 1981-2005
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    摘要:

    利用中國東北1981—2005年173個氣象臺站觀測的月平均地表(0 cm)溫度資料和參加IPCC第五次評估報告的43個全球氣候模式模擬結果,對比分析了CMIP5耦合氣候模式對中國東北地區地表溫度的模擬性能。結果表明:大部分氣候模式模擬結果都能較好的再現研究區域的地表溫度時空變化,與月觀測的時間相關系數均高于095,對年際變化模擬能力稍差,大部分模式模擬結果在整個研究時段均表現出冷偏差??臻g分布顯示,CMIP5模式能夠模擬出中國東北地區地表溫度南高北低的空間分布特征,但不同模式模擬結果之間差異較大,模擬能力較優模式能夠較好的模擬出研究區域的冷暖中心,較優模式組和較差模式組在夏季的差距達到最大,較差模式組不能再現地表溫度的分布特征。通過模式優選發現FGOALS_s2模式表現最優??偟膩碚f,CMIP5耦合氣候模式對中國東北區域地表溫度的時空變化特征的模擬性能較好,對氣候態年變化的模擬性能好于對年際變化的模擬。

    Abstract:

    The performances of 43 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phrase 5) models which participate in the Fifth IPCC Assessment (IPCC AR5) in simulating the land surface temperature (0 cm) over Northeast China during 1981-2005 are compared and analyzed using the outputs of CMIP5 models and the observation data from 173 meteorological stations. Results show that:most the climate model simulation results can reproduce the temporal and spatial changes of land surface temperature in the study area; the time correlation coefficient of the monthly observation is higher than 095; the cold deviation is found mostly throughout the studied period, and the simulation capability of interannual variation is limited. The spatial distribution shows that the CMIP5 models can simulate the spatial temperature distribution characteristics of high in the south and low temperature in the north over Northeast China, but the differences between the simulation results of different models are large and the models can simulate the warm and cold centers. The difference between the good and poor model groups in summer is the largest, and the poor model group cannot reproduce the distribution characteristics of the surface temperature. It is found that the FGOALS_s2 model is optimal. In general, the CMIP5 coupled climate models have good performances for the temporal and spatial variation of surface temperature in Northeast China, and the simulation performance of monthly value is better than that of interannual variation.

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馮雙磊,靳雙龍,劉曉琳,馬振強,胡菊,宋宗朋. CMIP5全球氣候模式對1981—2005年東北地表溫度的模擬分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(6):1154~1164

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  • 收稿日期:2017-08-08
  • 定稿日期:2018-09-11
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-12-27
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