低頻圖在貴州汛期延伸期強降水預測中的應用
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中國清潔發展機制基金贈款項目(2013031)“貴州省氣候變化影響評估及應對服務”、貴州省氣象局青年基金項目(黔氣科合QN[2017]04號)和貴州省氣候診斷業務項目共同資助


Application of LowFrequency Synoptic Map in Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Guizhou Province
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    摘要:

    本文基于低頻圖方法對貴州省2011—2015年59次區域性強降水過程對應的500 hPa低頻流場進行EOF統計分析,建立貴州省強降水過程的統計預測模型,通過外推試驗開展貴州2016年汛期延伸期強降水過程預測,利用回算試驗的預測準確率評估該方法的本地適用性。結果表明:影響貴州強降水的6個低頻關鍵區分別為貝加爾湖以西地區(40°~70°N,80°~110°E,1區)、貝加爾湖以東地區(40°~70°N,110°~150°E,2區)、中國西南地區東部至華中地區(25°~40°N,100°~120°E,3區)、西太平洋地區(10°~40°N,120°~140°E,4區)、孟加拉灣地區(0°~25°N,70°~100°E,5區)和中國南海地區(0°~25°N,100°~120°E,6區)。當1、4區出現低頻反氣旋,3、5區出現低頻氣旋,2、6區有配合其它關鍵區的低頻系統活動的環流配置為貴州省強降水過程預測模型。2016年汛期強降水過程進行預測試驗的預測準確率為392%,表明低頻圖方法在貴州省強降水過程預測中的應用效果較好。

    Abstract:

    Applying the lowfrequency synoptic map, the statistical prediction model of heavy rainfall in Guizhou Province is established based on the EOF analysis and statistical analysis of 500 hPa low frequency flow field corresponding to 59 regional precipitation processes from 2011 to 2015 The local applicability of the method is assessed by means of the accuracy rate of the 2016 forecast results applying extrapolation. The results indicate that the six key regions of the low frequency systems for Guizhou heavy rainfall are: west of Lake Baikal (Region 1, 40° to 70°N, 80° to 110°E), east of Lake Baikal (Region 2, 40° to 70°N, 110° to 150°E), east of Southwest China to central China (Region 3, 25° to 40°N, 100° to 120°E), western Pacific (Region 4, 10° to 40°N, 120° to 140°E), Bay of Bengal (Region 5, 0° to 25°N, 70° to 100°E), southern of China (Region 6,0° to 25°N, 100° to 120°E). The prediction model of the heavy rainfall in Guizhou is: the low frequency anticyclone appeared in the Region 1 and the low frequency cyclone in Regions 3 and 5 and the low frequency system activity in Regions 2 and 6 According to the cycle of the low frequency system in each key area, the forecasting experiment was carried out in 2016 flood season. The prediction accuracy was 392%, which indicates that the application of low frequency map method is well in predicting the heavy rainfall process in Guizhou.

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李忠燕,孫昭萱,張嬌艷,吳戰平.低頻圖在貴州汛期延伸期強降水預測中的應用[J].氣象科技,2018,46(5):999~1003

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  • 收稿日期:2017-09-14
  • 定稿日期:2018-03-27
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-10-31
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