氣象干旱綜合監測指數在安徽省的適用性分析
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安徽省氣象局科技發展基金項目(KM201712,KM201417)、國家自然科學基金項目(41605068)資助


Comparison of Comprehensive Meteorological Drought Index with Other Drought Indices and Its Applicability in Anhui Province
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    摘要:

    利用1981—2016年安徽省77站日降水量、平均氣溫和土壤墑情資料,通過相關分析和主成分分析方法構建了該區域旱季(10月至次年3月)、澇季(4-9月)氣象干旱綜合指數MCI_anhui,從頻率分布、干旱日數演變、不合理跳躍次數及代表站典型干旱過程等方面,對4種氣象干旱指數在安徽省的適用性展開對比分析。結果表明:MCI_anhui在反映較重等級氣象干旱時優于其他指數,能很好地診斷出安徽歷史上典型大旱年;基于該指數的干旱日數時空演變表現為沿淮北夏旱和春末旱最多,江淮之間春末夏初旱情最多,沿江江南秋旱最多;36年所有干旱過程中不合理跳躍次數不足10次,就典型干旱過程中對降水反應的敏感性而言,它在表現干旱緩慢發展的特征時優于其他指數,不合理波動較少,且干旱后期緩和或解除過程中也不如其他指數過于敏感。綜合來看,MCI_anhui對干旱過程具有較好的識別與診斷能力,在安徽省適用性良好。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation, temperature, and soil relative humidity data of 77 stations in Anhui Province from 1981 to 2016, the Gomprehensive Meteorological Drought Index (MCI_anhui) for dry season (October to March) and flood season (April to September) is constructed by using the correlation and principal component analysis methods. In respects of the frequency distribution, evolution of drought days, illogical jumping times and typical drought processes for representative stations, the applicability of four meteorological drought indices in Anhui is analyzed through contrasts. The results show that the MCI_anhui is superior to others in reflecting the meteorological drought with heavier grades, which can well diagnose typical drought years in the history of Anhui. The number of drought days calculated from this index shows that droughts in the areas along and north of the Huaihe River occurred mostly in summer and late spring, while in the areas between Huaihe and Yangtze River, droughts mainly occurred in late spring and early summer, and in the areas along and south of the Yangtze River, droughts mainly occurred in autumn. The illogical jumping times of all drought processes in 36 years were less than 10 In terms of its sensitivity to precipitation during typical drought processes, it is represented that the MCI_anhui with less illogical jumping times is not only superior to others in reflecting slowly progressive characteristics of drought, but also less excessively sensitive during the later period of drought. In general, the MCI_anhui has a better ability to identify and diagnose drought processes and favorable applicability in Anhui Province.

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楊瑋,謝五三,王勝,張宇.氣象干旱綜合監測指數在安徽省的適用性分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(5):988~998

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  • 收稿日期:2017-09-11
  • 定稿日期:2018-03-05
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-10-31
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