陜西省精細化網格預報業務系統技術方法
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中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2018074、CMAYBY2018075),氣象預報業務關鍵技術發展專項(YBGJXM2018:0313)資助


Operation System of Fine Grid Forecast in Shaanxi Province: Technical Methods
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    摘要:

    精細化網格預報不僅是目前中國氣象局主推的預報業務,而且是未來天氣預報的發展方向。本文詳細闡述了陜西省精細化網格預報業務系統中數據產品的技術方法。主要包括4個方面:①建立了陜西網格預報技術框架,提出“動態交叉最優要素預報”(DCOEF)的方法來建立基礎網格預報場。②提出“站點訂正值向格點場傳遞”的格點連續性要素訂正方法,交叉檢驗表明該方法在格點場上24 h最低、最高溫度<2 ℃的準確率較模式降尺度數據分別提高34%和23%,此外,該方法在背景場協同,主觀站點預報和客觀格點預報要素值融合一致方面有較好的應用價值。③基于“偏差訂正”方法訂正格點降水,結果表明通過計算預報偏差Bias,來“消空”小雨頻率,“補漏”暴雨頻率,ECMWF降水預報24 h小雨、暴雨TS評分較原模式分別提高25%和482%。④提出“反向離差數據歸一化”算法,處理因客觀方法或主觀訂正后數據在時間序列上的矛盾問題,該方法不改變原模式對要素的預報趨勢,同時使得要素在時間上協同一致,很好地解決了網格要素預報的時間協同性問題。

    Abstract:

    Fine grid forecast is the main service of the China Meteorological Administration, and also the future development direction of weather forecast. This system improves the spatial resolution (0025°×0025°), and at the same time, meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature forecast quality. This article described the technical methods in the data products of this system, from four aspects: (1) established the technical framework for grid forecast, using the Dynamic Cross Optimal Elements Forecast (DCOEF) method to establish the background field of grid forecast, which means comparing different model’s element forecast results and selecting that with higher forecast quality in past 15 days as the base field for forecasters; (2) proposed the method of “stationrevised value transmitting to the grid field” for consecutive elements correction. The cross test shows that the accurate rate of 24hour minimum and maximum temperature (<2 ℃) are improved by 34% and 23%, respectively, by this method compared to the model downscaling data, and also, the method has better application value in the combination of the background field collaborative and subjective station forecast and objective grid element forecasts; (3) based on the Bias Correction method to correct grid precipitation; the results show that through calculating forecast bias to decrease light rain frequency and increase rainstrom frequency, the 24hour TS (Threat Score) improved by 25% and 482%, respectively, compared to the original model. (4) proposed the reverse deviation data normalization algorithm to deal the inconsistent problem of the objective or subjective correction data in the time series, which does not change the elements forecast trends of original models, and at the same time, the elements are coordinated in time, so to solve the problem of time coordination of grid elements.

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王建鵬,薛春芳,潘留杰,胡皓,戴昌明,王丹.陜西省精細化網格預報業務系統技術方法[J].氣象科技,2018,46(5):910~918

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  • 收稿日期:2017-08-31
  • 定稿日期:2018-07-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-10-31
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