吉林省最高最低氣溫非對稱變化時空演變特征
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項“干旱氣象科學研究—我國北方干旱致災過程及機理” (GYHY201506001)資助


Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Asymmetric Change of Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Jilin Province
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    摘要:

    利用吉林省45個氣象站1970-2014年逐日的最高、最低氣溫資料,分析吉林省最高、最低氣溫不對稱變化在年、季尺度上的時空演變特征。采用經驗模態分解法(EMD)分解年、季最高、最低氣溫序列,分析變化趨勢。結果表明:近45年年平均最高、最低氣溫均呈增加趨勢,且最低氣溫增幅是最高氣溫的兩倍。四季的最高、最低氣溫變化形式與年變化一致;不同地區之間最高氣溫的增幅差異不大,最低氣溫增幅存在一定區別,東部最低氣溫增幅小于中、西部。相對穩定的增溫區出現在西部和中部,不同季節的增溫幅度不同,春、夏要強于秋、冬。經驗模態分解(EMD)結果顯示吉林省年平均最高、最低氣溫均為增加趨勢,而春、冬季中最高氣溫趨勢分量的傾向率與原始序列不同,為負值。夏、秋季中最高氣溫及四季中最低氣溫趨勢分量序列與原始數據序列的傾向率一致,均為正值但大小存在差異。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 45 weather stations in Jilin Province for the period of 1970 to 2014, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the asymmetric changes in the maximum and minimum temperature at the annual and seasonal scales are analyzed. At the same time, the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is adopted to decompose and analyze the trends of the annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature sequences. The results show that the average maximum and minimum temperature in the last 45 years has been on the rise, and the increase of the minimum temperature was twice as high as that of the maximum temperature. Besides, the maximum and minimum temperature changes at the seasonal scale were consistent with those at the annual scale; there was little difference in the increase in the maximum temperature between different regions, but a certain difference between the minimum temperature increases of different regions. The increase of the minimum temperature in the eastern region was smaller than those of the central and the western regions. In addition, regions with relatively stable temperature rise appeared to be the central and the western regions, where different increases in amounts were found in different seasons, referring to that temperature rise in spring and summer was larger than in autumn and winter. The EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) results indicate that the annual average maximum and minimum temperature in Jilin Province were on the rise, while the inclination rates of the maximum temperature trend component in spring and winter were different from that of the primary sequence. The inclination rates of the maximum temperature trend component in summer and autumn and the minimum temperature trend component for four seasons were all in accordance with the primary sequence, which were positive, but different in size.

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岳元,申雙和,岳立成,王琪,于宛男.吉林省最高最低氣溫非對稱變化時空演變特征[J].氣象科技,2018,46(4):744~752

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  • 收稿日期:2016-11-28
  • 定稿日期:2018-04-10
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-08-30
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