GRAPES業務全球集合控制預報初值的動力升尺度方法
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中國氣象局公益性行業科研專項(GYHY201506005)、國家科技支撐計劃課題(2015BAC03B01)共同資助


Dynamical Upscaling Technique for Initial Fields of GRAPES Operational Global Ensemble Control Forecast
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    摘要:

    以生成GRAPES全球集合預報業務系統的控制預報初值為目的,基于GRAPES全球模式,開展了控制預報初值生成方法研究,發展了高分辨率初值動力升尺度方法,并檢驗了不同方法的可行性。通過對比不同方法產生的初始場形態,證實了僅僅對高分辨率初始場進行二維水平插值存在不足,基于靜力學方程對Exner氣壓變量進行三維插值至關重要。結果表明,動力升尺度方法利用靜力平衡關系,對全場的溫壓場進行調整,使之協調平衡,可以改善二維水平插值方法導致的初始位勢高度場和溫度場的噪音問題,產生適用于GRAPES全球集合預報業務系統的控制預報初值。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to generate the initial fields for the control forecast of the GRAPES global ensemble prediction system, based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) global model, the initial field generation scheme is studied, and a dynamical upscaling technique of the high resolution initial field is developed, and the feasibility of different schemes is verified. By comparing the spatial patterns of the initial fields obtained through different schemes, it is verified that the horizontal interpolation scheme has certain shortcomings, and the threedimensional interpolation for the Exner pressure variable based on the hydrostatic equation is of great importance. The results show that with the dynamical upscaling technique, the initial geopotential height and temperature noise problems due to the horizontal interpolation scheme can be improved by adjusting the global temperature and pressure fields, so that they are balanced according to the hydrostatic balance relation, and the initial field of low resolution obtained with the dynamical upscaling technique is suitable for the control forecast of the operational GRAPES global ensemble prediction system.

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霍振華,陳靜,李曉莉,劉永柱,張林,趙濱,彭飛,田華. GRAPES業務全球集合控制預報初值的動力升尺度方法[J].氣象科技,2018,46(4):707~717

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-19
  • 定稿日期:2018-04-10
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-08-30
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