魯西北連續兩次強降水過程對比分析
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2016年中國氣象局預報預測核心業務發展專項(CMAHX20160208),2016年山東省自然科學基金項目(ZR2016DM20), 2014年山東省氣象局科研項目(2014sdqxm20),中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2011026,CMAYBY2013040)資助


Comparative Analysis of Two Consecutive Heavy Rainfall Events in Northwestern Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    利用各種觀測資料和NCEP/NCAR 1×1°再分析資料,對2012年7月30日夜間和31日夜間魯西北連續兩天強降雨天氣進行診斷和對比分析。結果表明:強降水產生在西風槽前和副熱帶高壓邊緣的偏南暖濕氣流中,西風槽穩定少動,臺風在東南沿海北上,副高加強北抬,為魯西北連續兩天的強降水提供了天氣尺度背景。925 hPa及以下的低層,來自于渤海的偏東氣流和來自于華東沿海的東南氣流同時向魯西北強降水區輸送水汽,低層比濕大,CAPE和K指數較高。第1次強降水產生在偏南氣流的暖區中,降水強度大,維持時間短。第2次強降水期間,低層有冷空氣鍥入,把暖濕氣流抬升,前期為對流性降水,中后期轉為穩定性降水,降水強度小,維持時間較長。850 hPa及以下倒槽式切變線和中尺度低渦環流是造成強降水的中尺度影響系統,近地面層來自于渤海的東北氣流與來自于東南沿海的東南暖濕氣流形成中尺度渦旋,產生氣旋式輻合上升,觸發對流不穩定能量釋放。對流云團在魯西北形成長形的中尺度對流系統(MCS),穩定少動,有明顯的列車效應和后向傳播特征。強降水具有較強的日變化,夜間發展增強,白天減弱。

    Abstract:

    Using a variety of observational data and NCEP/NCAR 1°×1° reanalysis data, a diagnostic analysis is made of two consecutive heavy rainfall events on 30 July and 1 August 2012 in the northwestern Shandong Province. The results show that the heavy rainfall formed in the warm air around the south edge of the subtropical high in front of the steady westerly trough; a typhoon moved northward along the coast of Southeast China; the subtropical high strengthened and moved northward; which provided a synoptic background for the heavy rainfall events for two consecutive days. At the lower level blow 925 hPa, both the southeast winds from the southeast coast and the east winds from Bohai provided moisture and energy supply for the heavy rainfall, leading to higher humidity, high temperature, convective instability, and high CAPE. The first heavy rain occurred in south winds and warm air with strong intensity and short duration. During the second heavy rain, the lowlevel cold air invaded and the warm air were lifted; there was convective precipitation in the early stage and stable rainfall in the later, with weaker intensity and longer duration. The shear line with a reverse trough and mesoscale vortex circulation in 850 hPa and below were the influencing systems for the heavy rainfall events. At lower levels, the northeast air flow from the Bohai Sea and the southeast warm air from the coast of Southeast China generated a mesoscale vortex, which induced cyclonic converging ascending and triggered the release of instable convective energy. Convective cloud clusters formed a stable Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) in the northwestern Shandong, resulting in obvious train effect and backwardpropagation characteristic. The heavy rainfall had a strong diurnal variation, enhanced at night and weakened in daytime.

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楊曉霞,夏凡,張騫,侯淑梅,劉暢.魯西北連續兩次強降水過程對比分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(3):605~618

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  • 收稿日期:2017-06-04
  • 定稿日期:2017-09-04
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-06-28
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