川西高原中部一次極端暴雪成因分析
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Analysis of an Extreme Snowstorm Weather Process in Central Western Sichuan Plateau
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    摘要:

    利用05°×05°的ECWMF再分析資料,常規氣象資料以及西南區域數值預報模式模擬等資料,應用天氣分析和診斷方法,對2016年2月21日川西高原中東部的極端暴雪天氣過程進行系統分析。結果表明:500 hPa貝加爾湖橫槽旋轉南下使得冷空氣并入川西高原中部的低槽中,其與西南暖濕氣流交匯產生的鋒生以及西南急流存在是此次暴雪天氣產生的重要原因;隨著副高的北進,此次強降雪開始之前有來自于孟加拉灣和南海的兩支水汽輸送,西南低空急流穩定維持為此次暴雪提供了充足的水汽。MPV2在此次暴雪過程中起到了重要作用;強降雪主要發生在SVD(Slantwise Vorticity Development)強烈發展的時段內,暴雪落區與SVD發展最強烈的區域重合;西南區域數值預報模式提前6 h對此次暴雪的形勢場和物理量場都做出了較為準確的預報,其中垂直速度和水汽條件預報與實況最吻合,但降水預報的量級較實況偏弱一個量級,強降水落區比強度預報更準確。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observation data and ECWMF 6hour reanalysis data and the Southwest Regional Numerical Prediction Model, a very severe snowstorm occurred in the middle east of the Western Sichuan Plateau in 21 February 2016 is analyzed and diagnosed. The results show that the snowstorm was mainly related to the southwest jet and the frontogenesis formed in the combination with the cold air and southwest warm and humid airflow. The cold air to the south of the horizontal trough of Baikal was incorporated into the low trough in the central Western Sichuan Plateau. The Bay of Bengal and South China Sea are the sources of the vapor of the snowstorm as the subtropical high moves northward. The heavy snowfall occurred when Slantwise Vorticity Development (SVD) strongly developed and the snowstorm area was the same as the strongest zone for SVD development. The Southwest Regional Numerical Forecast Model made the accurate forecast 6 hours in advance of the snowstorm’s potential field and physical field. The precipitation forecast was one order of magnitude weaker than the actual precipitation, and the falling zone forecast of the snowstorm was more accurate than its strength forecast.

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孫俊,鄧國衛,夏炳江.川西高原中部一次極端暴雪成因分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(3):584~593

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-06
  • 定稿日期:2017-11-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-06-28
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