近54年艾比湖綠洲太陽輻射變化特征
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國家自然科學基(41771470,U1303381、41261090),自治區重點實驗室專項基金(2016D03001);自治區科技支疆項目(201591101);教育部促進與美大地區科研合作與高層次人才培養項目共同資助


Characteristics of Solar Radiation in Aibi Lake in Recent 54 Years
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    摘要:

    太陽輻射是最基本、最重要的能量來源,分析其變化對區域氣候特色和農業發展有著重要的作用。本文利用1961—2013年艾比湖綠洲地區4個氣象站點氣象資料,采用最小二乘分析法、距平分析法、MannKendall趨勢分析法和小波分析等方法,分析了艾比湖綠州地區太陽輻射的年際變化趨勢。研究結果表明:①該地區年輻射量總體呈現下降趨勢,相對變化幅度為128,波動相較平穩。年內輻射量主要集中在5—8月,占全年的52%,呈正態分布狀態,年內各月都呈下降趨勢,其中7月的下降速率最大。②艾比湖綠洲的總輻射量主要集中在春夏兩季,且4個季節的變化趨勢基本相同,均出現了從“變亮”到“變暗”的交替過程。通過檢驗閾值在99%的水平下顯示,輻射量在1986年出現突變。全年總輻射量的變動與四季變化趨勢基本相同。③對于21 a、10 a和7 a周期變化都存在著相對“亮期”和相對“暗期”,但振蕩周期不同。

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    Solar radiation is the most basic and important energy source of the earth surface. It is very important to analyze the change of the solar radiation for regional climate and agricultural development. This study uses the meteorological data of 4 meteorological stations in the Ebinur Lake oasis area from 1961 to 2013 and the methods of the least squares discriminant analysis, anomaly analysis, MannKendall trend analysis and wavelet analysis to analyze the periodic change regularity of the solar radiation. The results show that: (1) The annual amount of radiation decreased with a relative change rate of 128; the fluctuation was relatively stable. The amount of radiation was mainly concentrated in the period from May to August, accounting for 52% of the year, which showed a normal distribution. A downward trend can be found in all months, with the decline rate being the largest in July. (2) The total amount of radiation in the Ebinur Lake oasis mainly concentrated in summer and autumn; the change trends of the four seasons were basically the same; there appeared the alternative process from lighting to dimming. Through the threshold test at the level of 99%, the amount of radiation showed a mutation in 1986 The change of annual total radiation was basically the same with changes of radiation in four seasons. (3) For the 21year, 10year, and 7year period cycles, there were relatively bright and dark periods, but the oscillation periods were different.

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譚嬌,丁建麗,陳文倩,董煜,張鈞泳,唐夢迎.近54年艾比湖綠洲太陽輻射變化特征[J].氣象科技,2018,46(3):532~538

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  • 收稿日期:2017-05-05
  • 定稿日期:2017-12-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-06-28
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