天氣突變對心腦血管疾病的影響
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Impact of Sudden Weather Changes on CCVd from November to Next February in Dandong
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    摘要:

    為做好公共氣象疾病指數預報服務,以丹東市近2004—2015年共8677例心腦血管疾病住院患者為樣本,分析了心腦血管疾病住院人數與氣象因素關系,重點分析了11月至次年2月天氣突變對心腦血管疾病發病的影響,結果表明:①心腦血管疾病的患病住院人數與氣壓、風速均呈極顯著正相關關系,分別為0949和0933;與月平均氣溫呈極顯著負相關關系(-0992),均通過了001的顯著性水平檢驗,且冬季心腦血管病住院人數大于夏季;②冷鋒、氣旋、寒潮和大風等突變氣象條件與心腦血管疾病住院人數呈正相關。該分析結果可作為日常公共氣象疾病指數預報的科學依據,當預報出現心腦血管疾病高發天氣條件時,及時通過手機短信、微博、微信等新媒體提供給廣大公眾,有利于預防和減輕心腦血管病的發生,取得良好的社會效益。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the forecast service of public weather index, taking 8677 cases of cardiocerebrovascular disease (CCVd) inpatients in Dandong for recent 17 years as samples, based on the analysis of the relationship between the number of CCVd inpatients and meteorological factors, the impact of sudden weather changes on the morbidity of CCVd inpatients from November to February is studied. The results show: (1) The number of cardiovascular diseases inpatients is positively correlated with the air pressure and wind speed, with the correlation coefficients being 0949 and 0933, respectively, and negatively correlated with monthly average temperature with the correlation coefficient being -0992, both passed the test of 001 significance level; the number of CCVd inpatients in winter is larger than that in summer. (2) The number of CCVd inpatients is positively correlated with meteorological conditions such as cold fronts, cyclones, coldair outbreaks and gales. The results of this study can be used as the scientific basis for public weather index forecast. When the weather conditions that are favorable to the high incidence of CCVds are predicted, the warning massages will be provided to the public in time through new media such as SMS, microblog, and WeChat, which will be beneficial to prevent and reduce the occurrence of CCVds and achieve good social benefits.

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樊希彬,譚麗靜,李丹,范佳文,樊金霞,馬云龍,孫瑩.天氣突變對心腦血管疾病的影響[J].氣象科技,2018,46(2):418~422

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  • 收稿日期:2017-03-21
  • 定稿日期:2017-11-30
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-05-02
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