隨機森林模型判定熱帶氣旋變性完成時間
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

國家自然科學基金(41375049、40905021、41275099),中國博士后科學基金(2011M500894),國家公益性行業(氣象)科技專項(GYHY201206005)共同資助


Applying Random Forests to Determine Completion Time of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    氣旋相空間作為一種判定變性熱帶氣旋的客觀方法得到了廣泛應用,但采用不同分辨率的再分析資料計算的相空間參數值會有所不同,若采用固定的參數閾值將給判定變性時間帶來誤差。本文將熱帶氣旋地理位置、中心氣壓和相空間參數組成因子向量,采用隨機森林方法對1979—2016年間西北太平洋變性熱帶氣旋變性完成時間進行判定。判定結果表明:隨機森林在訓練集中區分氣旋為熱帶氣旋或溫帶氣旋的平均誤判率為275%,判定變性完成時間和觀測完成時間差異在6 h以內的百分比為718%,測試集中差異6 h內百分比為659%,差異在12 h內百分比超過80%;因子重要性分析表明,緯度值對判定準確度的貢獻最大;當變性完成時刻海平面氣壓較低時隨機森林判定的變性完成時間滯后于觀測時間,當海平面氣壓較高、低層冷暖平流較強時隨機森林判定的變性完成時間超前于觀測時間;在隨機森林實例應用中,登陸型熱帶氣旋“莫拉克”和疑難路徑“獅子山”的判定結果和觀測變性時間一致。

    Abstract:

    The Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) as an objective method of determining Extratropical Transition (ET) has been used widely. Since the parameters of CPS may not be equal with different resolution reanalysis dataset, they bring errors in deciding the completion time of extratropical transition by using a fixed threshold. In this paper, Radom Forests (RF) method is applied to determine the completion time of TCs over the Western North Pacific from 1979 to 2016, and the factor vector consists of geographical location, center pressure, and CPS parameters. The results of the RF model show that the classification error of RF to distinguish the cyclone into a tropical cyclone or extratropical cyclone is nearly 275% on average, and the percentage of difference between determined and observed completion time within 6 hours is 718% in the training dataset, while the percentage is 659% in the testing dataset, and the percentage of difference within 12 hours exceed 80% in the later dataset. The importance analysis of variables indicates that the greatest contribution to the accuracy of determining is from latitude. The completion time determined by RF lags behind the recorded when the center pressure is lower; however, the determined time is ahead of the recorded as the center pressure is higher and temperature advection at low levels is stronger. In example application, the determined results for Mokakot (2009) and Lionrock (2016) correspond with the completion time recorded well.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

劉吉敏,黃泓,吐莉尼沙.隨機森林模型判定熱帶氣旋變性完成時間[J].氣象科技,2018,46(2):307~315

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-21
  • 定稿日期:2017-08-04
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2018-05-02
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>