華東地區弱天氣背景下強對流過程的GRAPESMeso模式模擬分析
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國家重點研發計劃項目(2017FYC1502003)資助


Simulation Analysis of Severe Convective Weather in Weakly Forced System in East China with GRAPESMeso
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    摘要:

    選取2016年3—8月華東地區11次弱天氣尺度強迫背景下的強對流過程,根據主要影響系統進行分類,并結合不同強對流類型,用GRAPESMeso模擬結果、WRF模擬以及實況資料分別從環流形勢場、強降水發生的時間和空間、熱力、動力、水汽、風雹環境場等方面進行對比分析。結果顯示,在低層弱輻合類強對流天氣中,GRAPESMeso模擬的切變線附近的偏南風較實況偏弱,模擬的后半時段降水偏強,極端小時雨強出現時間滯后;副高類強對流天氣中,模擬的降水分為兩種情況,一類與實況大致相當,另一類與實況降水相比明顯偏弱;兩高之間的強對流天氣中,模擬降水范圍偏小強度偏弱。風雹發生前,模擬偏暖濕,0~3 km和0~6 km垂直風切變大多偏小。

    Abstract:

    The study selected 11 cases of severe convective weather processes in the weakly forced systems in East China from March to August in 2016 According to the main influencing system and different convective types, the study contrasts GRAPESMeso simulation with WRF simulation and observation data in terms of the atmosphere circulation situation, time and space of shorttime strong rainfall, as well as moisture, heat, dynamic condition, and thunderstorm wind conditions. Results show that in the lowerlevel weak convergence weather, the south wind near the shear line simulated with GRAPESMeso is weaker than the observation; the simulated accumulative precipitation becomes stronger in the second half of simulation; the simulated extreme hourly precipitation lags behind the observation. While for the convective weather under the subtropical anticyclone, the simulated accumulative precipitation can be divided into two types: one is similar to the observation, the other is clearly weaker. For the severe convective weather occurred among the two high pressure systems, the simulated precipitation is weaker than the observation. The GRAPESMeso simulated environment is warmer and wetter before the thunderstorm winds occur, and the simulated 0-3 km and 0-6 km vertical wind shears are mostly weaker than the observation.

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萬子為,劉鑫華.華東地區弱天氣背景下強對流過程的GRAPESMeso模式模擬分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(2):282~291

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  • 收稿日期:2017-04-25
  • 定稿日期:2017-12-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-05-02
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