蘇南地區高溫特征
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江蘇省氣象科研基金(KM201211)、江蘇省氣象局科研基金項目(KM201602)、中國氣象局氣象關鍵技術集成與應用項目(CMAGJ2014Z02)、江蘇省氣象科研開放基金項目(201206)和常州市科技支撐計劃(社會發展)項目(CE20135047)共同資助。


Climatic Characteristics of HighTemperature over Southern Jiangsu
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    摘要:

    常州處于長三角地區中心地帶,利用常州1952—2016年最高氣溫,采用小波分析、功率譜分析以及氣候趨勢系數、氣候傾向率等氣候診斷方法,從高溫日數、年平均最高氣溫、年極端最高氣溫等方面分析了蘇南地區近65年高溫的氣候變化規律和周期性特征等。結果表明:高溫日數呈現年代際波動特征,20世紀50—80年代下降,80年代后呈增加趨勢; 21世紀00年代與20世紀80年代的高溫日數存在極顯著性差異,與20世紀70年代的高溫日數存在顯著性差異;平均最高氣溫經歷了升溫、降溫、緩慢升溫、快速升溫幾個年代際變化階段,〖JP2〗總體呈增強趨勢。高溫日數年際變化大,最高值與最低值相差48 d。無論是年高溫日數、年平均最高氣溫還是年極端最高氣溫,氣候趨勢系數和氣候傾向率均大于0?!糐P〗年平均最高氣溫呈現15 a年代際周期變化特征。

    Abstract:

    Using the climate diagnosis method of wavelet analysis, power spectrum analysis and climate trend coefficient, and climate tendency rate, the climate change law and periodic characteristics of high temperature of the southern Jiangsu Province in 65 years are analyzed from the aspects of the number of high temperature days, annual average maximum temperature, and annual extreme maximum temperature by taking Changzhou as an example. The results show that there are decadal fluctuation characteristics in the number of hightempera〖JP2〗ture days, a downtrend from 1950s to 1980s, but a rising trend after the 1980’s. 〖JP〗There was a very significant difference in the number of high temperature days between 2000s and 1980s and significant difference between 2000s and 1970s. The average maximum temperature experienced several decadal change stages, including warming, cooling, slow warming, rapid warming and so on, but the overall trend was warming. The decadal variation of the number of hightemperature days was remarkable; the difference between maximum and minimum was 48 For the number of annual high temperature days, the annual average maximum temperature, and the annual extreme maximum temperature, the climate trend coefficient and climate tendency rate were greater than 0 There was 15year cycle characteristic in annual average maximum temperature.

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雷正翠,吳建秋,蔣薇,黃文彥,劉銀峰,汪靖.蘇南地區高溫特征[J].氣象科技,2018,46(1):155~162

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-01
  • 定稿日期:2017-11-16
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-02-27
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