ECMWF模式氣溫預報在青島地區的檢驗與評估
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

青島市氣象局氣象科學技術研究項目“T639和EC地面溫度產品本地化預報性能檢驗”(2014qdqxm05)、“面向城市精細化服務的格點化氣象要素預報系統建設”(2015qdqxc01)、青島市氣象局青年科研專項(2016qqxq1)、山東省氣象局科學技術研究項目青島專項(sdqx201701)、山東省氣象局預報員專項(SDYBY201706)和國家自然科學基金(41375120)共同資助


Prediction Effectiveness Verification of ECMWF Fine GridModel for Air Temperature in Qingdao Region
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    利用2013—2015年ECMWF(簡稱EC)細網格模式 2 m氣溫預報產品,分析了不同季節和不同天氣形勢下EC 細網格模式產品對青島地區7個基準站逐日最高氣溫和最低氣溫的預報性能。結果表明:EC 細網格模式2 m氣溫預報誤差沿海站點大于內陸站點,且誤差隨著預報時效的延長逐漸增大。最高氣溫預報除膠州站外均為負誤差,最低氣溫預報青島、平度、萊西為正誤差,嶗山、黃島、膠州和即墨為負誤差。最高氣溫預報在3—4月和8—9月預報質量不穩定,最低氣溫預報夏半年好于冬半年。根據模式誤差特點,給出7站氣溫主觀訂正參考值,訂正后最高氣溫預報準確率提高3%~16%,最低氣溫預報準確率提高4%~18%。EC細網格模式對于暴雨、強對流、高溫晴熱、回暖天氣、冷空氣過程最高氣溫預報偏低,海霧影響時最高溫度預報偏高;對冬季大霧情形下的最低氣溫預報偏低,輻射降溫時最低氣溫預報沿海站點偏低,北部內陸站點偏高。

    Abstract:

    Based on the temperature data collected by 7 stations in Qingdao and the 2meter ECMWF fine grid forecast data form 2013 to 2015, the forecast effectiveness of the EC model is verified in different seasons and synoptic systems. The results show that the forecast errors in coastal regions are greater than those in the inland, and the effectiveness becomes worse with the increase of lead time. Maximum temperature forecast has negative errors except the Jiaozhou station, and minimum temperature forecast has positive errors for the Qingdao, Pingdu, Laixi stations, and negative errors for the rest. The maximum temperature forecasts in March and April, as well as August and September, are not so stable, while the minimum temperature forecasts in the summer half year are better than those in the winter half year. According to the regularity of the errors, the amended reference values of the 7 stations are given. After correction, the forecast effectiveness is improved obviously, 3% to 16% for maximum temperature, and 4% to 18% for minimum temperature. The forecast performance in different weather is also different: in rainstorm, severe convection, high temperature, warmer, temperature dropping weather, the maximum temperature forecast is lower, and the minimum temperature forecast is lower in winter fog weather; when there is radiation cooling, the minimum temperature forecasts are lower at the coastal stations in the south and higher at the inland stations in the north.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

萬夫敬,趙傳湖,馬艷,夏子瑤. ECMWF模式氣溫預報在青島地區的檢驗與評估[J].氣象科技,2018,46(1):112~120

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-10
  • 定稿日期:2017-05-03
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2018-02-27
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>