ECMWF模式對陜西2016年春夏季氣溫預報性能評估
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

陜西省氣象局2016年青年科研基金項目(2016Y5)、陜西省氣象局研究型業務重點科研項目(2015Z6)、陜西省氣象局精細化氣象格點預報攻關團隊共同資助


Evaluation of Air Temperature Forecast Performance of ECMWF HighResolution Model in Spring and Summer of 2016 in Shaanxi Province
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    利用2016年春、夏季節陜西99個國家站的氣溫逐1 h觀測數據,對ECMWF高分辨率數值模式對陜西國家站0~72 h逐3 h和78~240 h逐6 h的氣溫預報性能進行評估。結果表明,陜西大部分地區,氣溫預報誤差≤1 ℃和≤2 ℃的準確率在72 h之前分別為30%~50%和55%~85%,96 h之后分別為10%~30%和25%~55%,夏季的準確率高于春季,20:00起報的準確率略高于08:00起報。隨著預報時效的增加,模式的氣溫預報能力和穩定性波浪式下降,日變化特征明顯,23:00至次日11:00時段的預報能力和穩定性好于14:00—20:00時段。模式的氣溫預報值與觀測值有很好的相關性,但是模式和實際觀測站的地形高度差異會對氣溫預報質量產生較大影響?;跉鉁卮怪弊兟屎湍J脚c實際觀測站的地形高度差異進行的高度差訂正,可以適當提高模式的氣溫預報水平,文中提出的幾種氣溫預報的高度差訂正方法,對陜西大部分地區的氣溫預報為正訂正效果,但還存在一些問題,有待進一步研究。

    Abstract:

    Based on the 3hour hourly data of air temperature from 99 stations in Shaanxi Province in spring and summer of 2016, the 3hour temperature forecast performance of the ECMWF highresolution model (0 to 72 hours) and the 6hour temperature forecast performance (78 to 240 hours) are evaluated. The results show that the accuracies of air temperature with the forecast error less than 1 ℃ and 2 ℃ are 30% to 50% and 55% to 85% before 72 hours, 10% to 30% and 25% to 55% after 96 hours at most observation stations of Shaanxi Province. The accuracy of air temperature forecasted starting at 00:00 GMT is higher than that forecasted starting at 12:00 GMT, and the accuracy in summer is higher than that in spring. With the increase of forecast lead time, the capability and stability of numerical forecasting of air temperature decrease wavily, and their diurnal variation is obvious. The capability and the stability from 15:00 GMT to 03:00 GMT next day are better than those from 06:00 GMT to 12:00 GMT. There was a high correlation between numerical forecast and observation, but elevation difference between model surface and observation site influences the quality of numerical temperature forecast greatly. To some degree, a method of terrain height revision can improve the numerical forecast accuracy of air temperature, which put the variation of air temperature in the vertical direction and the elevation difference between model surface and observation site into consideration. The method for correcting air temperature forecast has positive correction effectiveness for most areas in Shaanxi Province, but it is problematic and needs for further research.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

王丹,王建鵬,潘留杰,何林,程路,戴昌明,胡皓,白慶梅. ECMWF模式對陜西2016年春夏季氣溫預報性能評估[J].氣象科技,2018,46(1):92~101

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-11
  • 定稿日期:2017-09-15
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2018-02-27
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>