引入積溫效應預測夏季西安市電力氣象負荷
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陜西省自然科學基金(2016JM4020)、中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2014070)、陜西省氣象局科學技術研究項目(2016Y7)資助


Forecasting Model of Meteorological Power Load in Xi’an in Summer Based on Accumulated Temperature Effect
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    摘要:

    利用2010—2012年6—8月西安市逐日電力負荷資料及對應時段地面觀測站數據,分析了高溫天氣過程中日最大電力負荷的變化特征。結果發現,3年間西安地區共發生晴熱天氣過程5次,悶熱天氣過程4次,其中晴熱天氣過程發生在6月,悶熱天氣過程發生在7、8月,且悶熱天氣過程的電力負荷增長更加明顯;利用日最高氣溫變化跟蹤氣象負荷的變化發現,日最高氣溫33 ℃為西安市氣象負荷初始氣溫敏感點,35 ℃為強氣溫敏感點,38 ℃為極強氣溫敏感點;引入積溫累積效應,建立了多元回歸的電力氣象負荷預測模型,經2013年夏季模型應用檢驗表明,日最大電力負荷預測平均誤差為60%,能較好的模擬電力負荷的實際變化,對西安市夏季電力氣象服務工作有指導意義。

    Abstract:

    By using the daily power load data and meteorological data from June to August from 2010 to 2012, the variations of daily maximum load in muggy weather and sunny hot weather are analyzed. The results show that there were 4 sunny hot processes occurred in June, 5 muggy processes occurred in July and August during the 3 years in Xi’an, and the power load growth was more obvious in muggy processes. Tracking the change of meteorological power load with the daily maximum temperature, when daily maximum temperature reached 33 ℃, the meteorological power load increase rapidly, and the daily maximum temperature of 33 ℃, 35 ℃ and 38 ℃ are three sensitive points of meteorological power load to air temperature variations in Xi’an. Considering the accumulated temperature effect as a forecast factor and using the multiple regression method, a forecasting model for meteorological power load in summer in Xi’an is established. Using the historic data in summer of 2013, the application test shows that the mean relative predicting error of the daily maximum load is 60%。The proposed model can be a good simulation of the actual changes in meteorological power load and provide some guidance for the power supply meteorological service of Xi’an in summer.

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盧珊,浩宇,王百朋,張宏芳.引入積溫效應預測夏季西安市電力氣象負荷[J].氣象科技,2017,45(6):1090~1094

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  • 收稿日期:2016-10-17
  • 定稿日期:2017-07-14
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-12-28
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