MODES月預測產品在貴州的釋用
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貴州省重大專項“主、客觀預測產品檢驗評估系統”黔氣科合ZD[2016] 04號、貴州省氣象局青年基金項目(黔氣科合QN[2017]04號)和貴州省核心業務發展專項共同資助


Application of MultiModel Downscaling Ensemble Prediction System (MODES) in Guizhou
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    摘要:

    基于符號一致率評分(Pc)法,對多模式解釋應用集成預測系統(MODES)的6種模式產品開展貴州85站2要素月預測釋用,根據評估結果進一步采用等權平均方案和最優方案對6種模式產品展開2012—2015年48個月的回算統計。分析表明:不同的模式產品的預報性能各不相同,其中ECMWF的模式產品的預測性能較NCC和NCEP來說相對較高;模式產品釋用時,最優方案的預報評分均高于其它6個模式產品的Pc評分平均值,且最優方案的預報評分高于等權平均方法的預報評分;回算結果,無論是氣溫還是降水,最優方案的Pc評分均都高于省級發布的月預測產品評分,這說明利用最優方案可以有效地提高MODES對貴州月氣溫和降水預測能力。

    Abstract:

    Based on the six outputs of models estimated by the multimodel downscaling ensemble prediction system (MODES), temperature and precipitation were evaluated in the prediction performance and analyzed by using the symbol consistency method (Pc). According to the results of the evaluation, the equalweight averaging scheme and the optimal scheme are used to statistically integrate the six model products for local application from 2012 to 2015The results indicate that the prediction performance of the model products is different, and the prediction performance of ECMWF is higher than that of NCC and NCEP. By comparing the two schemes, the scores of the optimal scheme are higher than the average score of six outputs and the equalweight averaging scheme no matter temperature or precipitation. Meanwhile, the scores of the optimal scheme are higher than those of the released prediction products. Therefore, using the optimal scheme can effectively improve the effect of MODES on predicted performance.

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李忠燕,嚴小冬,張嬌艷,白慧,吳戰平. MODES月預測產品在貴州的釋用[J].氣象科技,2017,45(6):1058~1064

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  • 收稿日期:2016-12-30
  • 定稿日期:2017-07-14
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-12-28
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