基于特定因子的河南省干熱風客觀預報方法
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中國氣象局農業氣象保障與應用技術重點開放實驗室基金項目(AMF201409)資助


Forecasting Method of DryHot Wind in Henan Province Based on Specific Factors
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    摘要:

    利用2000—2014年5月1日到6月10日河南省121個氣象觀測站點的逐日觀測數據、歐洲中心模式預報資料,對河南省干熱風天氣進行分析,總結了干熱風天氣形勢分類模型,同時利用多元回歸法建立了河南省干熱風天氣的客觀預報方法。分析結果得出:河南省干熱風天氣發生主要形勢為西北氣流型、高壓脊型和緯向環流型3類;通過多元回歸分析篩選出日最高溫度預報因子為前一日最高氣溫、當日最低氣溫、08:00氣溫、EC850 hPa 24 h溫度預報,相對濕度預報因子為EC850 hPa 24 h相對濕度預報、前一日14:00相對濕度、當日08:00露點溫度,風速預報因子為EC細網格過去3 h 10 m陣風預報,建立溫度、濕度和風速3要素的預報方程;利用預報方程對2014年預報時段的天氣進行檢驗,結果表明,對于輕干熱風預報的TS評分為62%,重干熱風預報的TS評分為64%。

    Abstract:

    The daily observational data and forecast data of the European center model from 2000 to 2014 of 1st to 31th May of 121 meteorological stations are used to analyze the dryhot wind events in Henan Province,and the classification models of dryhot wind weather are summarized. The objective forecasting method of dryhot wind of Henan Province by using multiple regression method is established. The results show that the main circulation patterns for dryhot wind in Henan province can be divided into three types: northwest airflow type, high pressure ridge type, and zonal circulation type. Through multiple regression analysis, the daily maximum temperature forecast factors are screened: the highest temperature of previous day, the lowest temperature of the day, 08:00 temperature, and EC850 hPa 24hour temperature forecast. The relative humidity forecast factors are: EC850 hPa 24hours relative humidity forecast, 14:00 relative humidity of the previous day, and 08:00 dew point temperature of the day. The wind speed forecast factor is: EC finegrid 10 meters wind forecast in the past 3 hours. The forecast equations of temperature, humidity and wind speed are established. The dryhot wind weather forecast equation is used for 2014 for verification. The results show that the weak dryhot wind forecast TS score is 62%, and strong dryhot wind forecast TS score is 64%.

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孟祥翼.基于特定因子的河南省干熱風客觀預報方法[J].氣象科技,2017,45(6):1049~1057

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  • 收稿日期:2016-12-16
  • 定稿日期:2017-09-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-12-28
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